谢清海的股市投资分享

http://www.gupiaoroom.com/201002/04293

 

1. 谢清海，一个在投资界享负盛名的传奇人物。获他垂青的股份，往往升价逾倍；他主理的惠理基金，长期跑赢大市兼获奖无数，被喻为「殿堂级基金天王」。
2. 近几年谢清海作风十分低调，鲜有公开谈股论市。今次破例接受本刊独家专访，除畅谈百战百胜的拣股秘技、精选心水价值股外，更首次公开復甦市下的投资组合。
3. 在游资氾滥及通胀重临下，谢清海预期资產价格会水涨船高，更坦言：「未来六个月股市仍具投资价值。」
4. 谈现市况：牛市未到 现处復甦初阶
5. 现职惠理集团(00806)主席及投资总监的谢清海，一向奉行「由下而上」(bottom-up)的价值选股原则，过去发掘无数被市场冷落的优质股，并率先买入；及后当市场惊觉「走宝」时，这些股份股价飆升，谢清海已饮了头啖汤。
6. 久远的辉煌战绩暂且不提，但单看去年底至今反弹浪中，谢清海亦凭价值选股法，再下一城赢漂亮一仗。
7. 「如果有基金今年的表现是跑输大市的，就因为他们减持太多股票、持有太多现金。「我只会买具有价值及估值很平的股份。去年11月左右很多股份跌得低贱，我就由此时开始将资金重投股市，因此造就了我们的基金，今年仍然跑赢大市。」根据交易纪录，去年底谢清海的投资旗舰惠理，在港股最恐慌之时已密密增持股份。
8. 旗下基金斩获甚丰其中於去年10月至12月期间，三度增持中海发展(01138)，增持价介乎5.417至6.013元，持股量最多达6.17%；至今年2月、3月开始逐步减持获利，3月底持股量低於5%。中海发展股价升势延续至今年6月初高见12.9元，较谢清海的增持价翻逾一番。
9. 及至最近，谢清海继续在港股中拣蟀，获垂青的股份包括申洲国际(02313)及北京京客隆(00814)。
10. 申洲国际是於5月获谢清海两度增持，平均每股增持价为2.995至3.092元，持股量由4.76%增至6.09%。申洲国际股价5月至今升势依然，本週五(7月10日)高见4.32元，远高於谢清海的扫货价。
11. 另一受宠股京客隆，谢清海更於4月底至6月底期间四度增持，持股量由4.98%增至8.2%，平均增持价3.051至4.027元。
12. 本週二(7日)京客隆股价高见4.86元，令谢清海旗下基金斩获丰厚。最差时候已成过去正因为谢清海对股份独具惠眼，旗下基金今年表现卓越，其中「Value Partners China Greenchip」及「Value Partners 高息股票基金」，年初至今回报分别为55.91%及44.35%；同期恒生指数只上升23.1%。
13. 谢清海重投股市，莫非牛市已经正式来临？他说：「我不认为目前是牛市，但可以定性为復甦市。「由於市场资金太多，而经歷去年全球金融问题后，资金流向都是选择既安全又具有增长的地方，尤其是中国。」
14. 谢清海认为目前正处復甦市是有根有据。他指出，内地採购经理指数(PMI)已连续几个月上升，并高企於50以上，反映经济正在扩张。同时，谢清海亦对超过2,000间公司进行研究，发现很多公司的业绩已在上半年见底。
15. 不少市场人士解释今年港股由低位大升，是由於通胀预期，令资金流入买资產保值。谢清海亦相信通胀将会重临，但预期只会反映在资產价格之上。「预期流入的资金不会太快流走；即使股市有所调整，但不会大跌，因为最差的时间已经过去。」谢清海认为，现在投资价值股仍然有理想回报，但要在投资组合的资產分配上多下工夫。
16. 论下半年：80%资金买股买楼
17. 不少市场人士认为，港股由去年低位10,676点，至今累升超过一半，市盈率升至高於平均歷史水平，可说是位高势危。谢清海指出，若以今年预测市盈率看，因今年企业盈利仍然受压，凸显市盈率偏高情况。但他对企业未来盈利復甦较具信心，认为不应单看今年市盈率数据。对於下半年港股展望，谢清海认为资金氾滥下会推高资產价格，相信未来六个月股市仍具有投资价值，但策略上仍然要倾向审慎，更要著重资產分配。「目前全球仍然存有不明朗因素，如将所有资金投放在股市中，万一之后经济有所差池，就会很麻烦。」
18. 半成资產买黄金「若持有太多现金，目前利息实在太低，甚至是实际负利率，又是很差的做法。」谢清海接受本刊专访时，披露他对资產组合分配的绝密建议。「我个人会较为审慎，可以将组合中15%作为现金持有；另外5%用来买黄金，因为当全球经济未復甦前，金价会造好。
19. 「至於其余80%资產，可用来购买股票及房地產。但拣股上不要太进取，要选择具有防守性的股份，这就是价值股。」谢清海说。
20. 谢清海所指的价值股，就是符合他选股原则的股份，包括低市盈率、高股息率、合理股本回报率、管理上具有质素的股份。
21. 「目前资金涌入，令内地开始出现经济泡沫。在泡沫形成下，价值股表现往往会跑输大市。因为在泡沫下，投资者喜欢炒卖具有概念的股份；但价值股却没有此炒作概念。」
22. 当然，泡沫炒作是短暂，价值增长才是长线。因此在泡沫下，反而是低吸价值股的最佳时机。最近谢清海更将此套已用了16年、在投资中、港股市恆之有效的选股方法，具体化地应用在指数选股中。
23. 拣股第一关：睇估值本週三惠理与富时集团合作，推出「富时价值股份中国指数」(简称价值股指数)，旨在发掘在港上市而被低估的优质中资股。指数内国企、红筹及民企等共25只成分股，便用上谢清海的价值选股机制。简单而言，通过多重筛选的股份，自然就是谢清海的心水爱股。若要成为价值股指数成分股，必先通过第一关估值测试。考虑估值是否吸引，其中一个方法是选取高股息率的股份。
24. 至於何谓高息，谢清海认为没有分界，但起码要较同业平均水平为高。拣股第二关：看股票质素即使顺利通过第一关，还要接受第二关挑战，决定该股是否具有质素，包括要有高股本回报率、高经营利润率及低净资產负债比率。此三项数据，是同时考虑过去三年平均数字。其中股本回报率在不依靠银行借贷下，要高於平均水平；经营利润率要高於，或至少达平均水平；同时，负债比率过大但较低利润率的公司将被剔除，以避开价值投资陷阱。
25. 「现在我更看重公司质素，小心从SWOT，即公司的优势(Strength)、劣势(Weakness)、机会(Opportunity)和威胁(Threat)来找寻股份；另亦看重该公司的持续性，不喜欢一些销售及现金流波动的公司。「另外，以前内地是没有品牌的，可口可乐（Coca-Cola）只是西方的品牌。但现在内地市场愈来愈成熟，亦已经发展本土的品牌，我们更要小心其品牌价值。」
26. 拣股第三关：逆向投资通过首两关测试后，股份更要符合逆向投资原则。即当大部分分析师普遍看好的股份，反而会被剔除。
27. 「我们是奉行逆向投资，当有80%分析员表示要买入某股时，反而是沽售的时候；相反，若有80%分析员投资建议沽售时，就可以考虑买进。至於为何要定80%?因为我们认为此比例已经是足够的。」谢清海说。
28. 同时通过上述三关的股份，将按市盈率排序，市盈率最低的25间公司，便成为价值股指数的成分股。此25只股份再按可供投资市值进行加权，以确保指数可投资性，单只股份佔指数成分股比例上限为15%。
29. 最新的价值股指数成分股，其中四只是内银股，包括建设银行(00939)、中信银行(00998)、工商银行(01398)及中国银行(03988)；另有五只内房股，包括瑞安房地產(00272)、合生创展(00754)、方兴地產(00817)、合景泰富(01813)及雅居乐地產(03383)。
30. 虽然成分股出现偏重某些行业情况，但上述股份筛选过程是以价值为先，并非以平衡行业比例为目标。此结果正反映不少内银股及内房股具有价值股元素。事实上，从指数成分股所见，不少股份并非热门当炒股份，亦不一定是行业龙头股。以煤炭股为例，未见龙头中国神华(01088)，却有兗州煤业(01171)、中煤能源(01898)及恒鼎实业(01393)。
31. 内房股中，不见龙头股中国海外(00688)上榜，反而二、三线内房股，如合生创展及方兴地產却并列成分股，反映此指数是拣股不拣市。正因透过筛选程序确定股份具有价值，令成分股长远表现往往可跑赢大市。以该指数追溯过去三年表现作参考，多数时间跑赢新华富时中国25指数（见上图）。谢清海已公开多年来的拣股心法，接下来就是要知道他对哪个行业、哪个市场具有兴趣，其中三大组合非留意不可。
32. 谢清海威水传奇
33. 今年55岁的谢清海，初出茅庐时任《亚洲华尔街日报》及《远东经济评论》财经记者；其后转职香港Morgan Grenfell集团，为该公司创立并领导香港股票研究部门，同时进行坐盘交易；至1993年与叶维义共同创办惠理基金，并一直担任投资总监。
34. 多年来谢清海在投资界获奖无数，包括今年获《AsianInvestor》杂誌选为亚洲区资產管理行业25位最具影响力人物之一；亦获《FinanceAsia》财经杂誌选为2007年度Capital Markets Person。论及战绩，最为市场津津乐道的，是2001年初B股一役。
35. 当时B股市场并未开放予内地人投资，只让外资参与，因此成交稀疏，股份价值被低估，亦乏人问津。谢清海早已洞悉内地市场增长无限，重注投资B股；及至2001年2月中国证监会突然将上海及深圳B股市场停市一星期，之后宣布向境内居民开放B股市场，此举令B股如脱疆野马般大升，谢清海旗下基金亦大有斩获。因为战绩彪炳，惠理管理资產水涨船高，其母公司惠理集团更在2007年11月在港上市。
36. 组合一：两大理由看好中、港地產股
37. 谢清海在访问中以个人身分提议投资者，将80%资產投放在地產及股票上。他看好这两类资產不外乎两个原因，而一切还是从美国滥「印银纸」开始说起。谢清海以投资中小型工业股打响名堂，但他掌握地產市场的脉搏也见功力。正当2003年人人因「沙士」惶惶不可终日之时，他却大手购入长江实业（00001）、恒隆地產（00101）及信和置业（00083）股份，成功捞底。
38. 如今谢清海再次发出看好中、港地產股的言论。「我对中、港地產股及香港地產价格异常乐观，因为这些都是有升值潜力的资產。」现时正值人人认为股市、楼市位高势危，他却表明看好香港地產股及地產价格，记者不得不再三追问背后玄机。理由一：美国印钞资金涌向中国在谢清海眼中，看好楼市离不开两个理由。「实在有太多资金在中、港股市流动，这是全球各国政府实行实质负利率及宽鬆货币政策下的现象。
39. 「虽然美国狂『印银纸』，但美国经济前景恶劣，资金不会留在当地投资；相反，市场只会投资在经济前景良好的地区，中国正好符合这个条件。」
40. 正当世界银行将全球经济增长预测调低至负2.9%之际，中国距离全年「保八」目标却愈来愈近。理由二：联匯所限 造成资產通胀在资金流向中国的背景下，谢清海意识到受资產通胀概念带动，香港资產价格是无得跌。「通胀将会来到，带动资產价格上升。
41. 「这个问题在香港尤为严重，因为香港实行联繫匯率，港、美之间匯率不能调节下，唯有在资產价格上反映资金流入的影响。这个现象我会称之为资產通胀（Asset Inflation）。」
42. 资金流入应会推高匯价。然而，在联匯强方兑换保证制度下，港元匯价不能升穿7.75上限水平。至於香港楼价，谢清海认为并非疯狂。「当你比较市民收入和楼价时，实际上亦算是合理，绝非疯狂。」香港现时供楼负担比率仅27.7%，相对1997年的93.2%已大为合理。谢清海没有明言对内地地產市场的看法，但惠理基金副投资总监苏俊淇认为，内地楼市目前尚算健康。既然有两大理由支持入市，谢清海领导下的惠理基金亦已率先购入地產股及相关股份。
43. 香港地產相关股份中，惠理持有资本策略（00497），但在4月14日减持，目前仍持有近7%股权。
44. 惠理在去年12月捞底买合富辉煌（00733）。当楼市升温，成交自然上升，合富辉煌作为广州地產代理自然受惠。惠理基金在5月8日披露，以每股1.889元减持合富辉煌，持股量由14.06%减持至13.97%。无论如何，惠理基金在此股回报可观，因为惠理去年底三度在0.5至0.6元水平增持。
45. 根据蛛丝马跡，普罗投资者一样可以按谢清海的价值投资原则拣股。毫无疑问，今时今日各类股份投资值博率已大不如今年3月份低位。但应用谢清海拣股原则，仍有个别地產股存在相当投资价值。例如北辰实业（00588）及上海復地（02337）亦符合谢清海的拣股原则，但现价09年度预测市盈率低见10及11.4 倍；边际经营利润达49.1%及32.5%， 虽然不是最高，但仍属中游水平。
46. 组合二：专吼隐世内需股
47. 内需股一直是投资市场焦点之一，谢清海作为惠理基金掌舵人自然不会放过。过去16年谢清海奉行「人弃我取」之道，根据惠理持股纪录，常见「唔冷门唔买」痕跡。正如今年惠理基金购入少为投资者注意的京客隆，便是这热门板块中的冷门股。
48. 谢清海倾向买入冷门的内需股亦不难理解。盖内需股作为全球焦点，估值已被炒到天价。在金融海啸下，估值仍然相对偏高。如此情况，惠理不买冷门内需股，就难以将价值投资法引用在内需股板块上。
49. 话说回来，惠理基金在4月30日吸纳京客隆。据事后曝光，惠理当日增持了46.8万股京客隆H股（国企股），平均买入价为3.051元；之后再度增持，愈买愈升。现时惠理持有京客隆达8.2%。及至本週五（10日），京客隆股价收报4.7元，较惠理基金持股曝光时的平均买入价累升达54%。
50. 揭买京客隆之谜既然能够亲身接触谢清海，记者单刀直入，希望他亲自揭开购入京客隆的理由。「和其他基金一样，惠理基金对内地内需非常看好，但我们不喜欢买别人也会一齐抢购的股份，例如物美商业（08277）。
51. 「我们尝试买些有别於投资市场喜好的股份。惠理基金其中一位基金经理提议拣选京客隆，因为从市盈率、股息率等范畴看，均远较知名股份吸引。」事实上，内地知名超市股估值殊不便宜。如华润创业（00291）、联华超市（00980）及物美09年度预测市盈率高达介乎17.8至24.2倍之间。
52. 相对而言，京客隆估值低见10倍预测市盈率，正好符合谢清海价值拣股原则。时代零售符合条件股息率方面，京客隆更称王称霸，预测股息率高达4.8厘；反观其余知名超市股股息率则在2厘之下，估计已脱离谢清海的侦察范围。
53. 其实，谢清海不止买廉价股份，更会考虑该公司经营生意的质素。京客隆虽然只是北京其中一个超市网络商，但边际利润达4.2%，绝对不逊色於其他全国性超市股。
54. 从另一角度看，虽然京客隆边际利润不及物美，但物美现时估值高达24.2倍市盈率，投资者即使有兴趣，也变得审慎。若按如此思路分析，时代零售（01832）或同样符合谢清海的拣股条件。盖时代零售是硕果仅存、市盈率低见约10倍左右的超市股。股息率方面，时代零售也见不俗，现价预测股息率达 3.3厘，仅次於京客隆。至於时代零售生意质素亦佳，边际利润达4.9%，排名第三，整体质素绝不逊於京客隆。
55. 非常看好台股前景
56. 在谢清海眼中，价值投资之道正是人弃我取。正如当年投资市场对内地B股市场避之则吉，他敢於逆水行舟，最后赢了漂亮一仗。此时此刻，投资者对台股了无兴趣，谢清海却笑言：「非常看好。台股自1990年代泡沫爆破后，至今都未收復失地，令很多投资者对台湾失去兴趣。」
57. 当时台湾加权指数在1990年2月创下12,424点歷史新高，即使在2008年马英九当选总统后带动投资气氛改善，至今仍未能收復失地。「纵使两岸关係有所突破，投资市场仍没有足够人看好台湾。正因为投资市场仍未意识到台湾有多么吸引，故此我们绝对看好台湾。」在谢清海眼中，台股蓄势待发。「我们认为两岸关係持续改善，会有很多优惠惠及台湾，故此我们对台股非常看好。」既然如此，惠理基金亦坐言起行在2008年3月推出「惠理台湾基金」。截至今年6月底止，该基金管理资產为2.6亿元，年初至今升幅为24.9%，最看好仍是非日用消费品股份，佔基金资產的24%；至於台股的主力部队科技股，则佔该基金资產值22%。
58. 组合三：供应不足 商品股大利
59. 谢清海眼中，通胀是股市回升动力之一；同时亦会利好地產、商品及资源股。然而，他看中商品还有一个原因，就是供应不足。谢清海接受本刊专访时说：「实际上，我个人一定看好商品，因为仍有潜在供应不足情况。我曾经参观澳洲的矿山，矿场其实不容易把矿石从地面掘出来。」
60. 这个生动例子说明地下天然资源受技术所限，不能因应经济情况加快开採。这种情况不止在澳洲矿山出现，甚至煤矿及油井也会面对如此情况。正如内地资源股龙头中国石油天然气（00857）及神华，每年开採石油与煤炭升幅不足5%及20%。
61. 谢清海没有明言供应不足和商品走势向好的关係，但细心一想，经济回暖必定刺激商品需求，令供应不足加剧，商品价格必升无疑，商品股股价也会一骑绝尘。一再强调通胀威胁供应不足的例子俯拾皆是。以石油为例，需求较两年前经济高峰期有所放缓，但不代表之前出现的供应不足不药而癒。当经济重拾升轨时，石油需求就会重燃增长。不幸的是，经济衰退期间石油生產商往往没有加大石油矿井投资的力度，结果当经济復甦时，供应不足情况总会歷史重演。
62. 石油只是其中一个例子，相信就是谢清海看好整个商品资產板块的背后原因。经济永远不会一潭死水，当经济復甦时，亦会刺激商品需求。谢清海估计，今年内地经济增长达8%；明年增长会更高。若看法兑现，商品供应不足随时出现。
63. 谢清海在整个访问中不断强调资產通胀的威胁。「市民会买入实物资產。」他没有明言通胀下的商品价格走势，但除了房地產外，如石油、黄金等实物资產价格亦会造好。
64. 惠理旗下「Value Partners China Greenchip」、「Value Partners高息股票基金」及「惠理价值基金」三大持股中，均见石油股中国海洋石油（00883）踪影，是谢清海看好商品的佐证。
65. 「5%资產押注黄金」
66. 「基金天王」谢清海在股票市场运筹帷幄、决胜千里。然而，他个人认为在现时大上大落的市况，别将所有鸡蛋放在同一篮子，故建议投资者：「将5%资產投资黄金，因为世界仍然不确定。如有任何出错，黄金将会体现其价值。」一言以蔽之，买黄金就是买一项保障。不过，买实金要考虑储存问题。SPDR金 ETF（02840）2008年登陆本港后，解决了上述难题。因为每一单位黄金ETF代表十分之一盎斯黄金，全部储存在?丰银行位於伦敦的金库。再者，SPDR金ETF在港交所买卖，令买卖黄金变成买股票般容易，儼然为港人提供投资黄金的新渠道，令谢清海将5%资產放在黄金上的建议较以往更易执行。当然，窝轮市场中亦有黄金相关的產品。不过，黄金窝轮加入槓桿及其他外在元素，似乎偏离了谢清海建议投资黄金以对冲风险的原意。
67. 明年展望：中国泡沫有好有坏
68. 对於下半年股市展望，谢清海认为整体走势仍是波动，但仍不失为具有投资价值；若展望明年表现，他又有何见解？「我个人意见是内地已经开始形成泡沫。股价表现是反映投资者对未来的希望与恐惧，因为目前投资者预期未来经济会比现在好，因此股市表现领先基本因素。」谢清海说。谢清海所指的泡沫，是因为外国央行不断「印银纸」，令市场资金氾滥。而此等热钱又不断流入中国，包括内地股市及楼市，令相关资產价格上升。若情况持续，将令资產价格高企，脱离基本因素，出现资產泡沫。
69. 至於最先出现的泡沫，谢清海预期将会在地產股出现，因为不少内房股今年股价已倍升。究竟这泡沫会否在明年爆破?谢清海进一步解释：「何时爆破就难以预期。根据过去经验，泡沫可以延伸很长时间，日本就是最好例子。
70. 「你问我明年股市走势如何，目前仍未知道。因为现今社会跟以往已经不同，经济週期愈来愈短，週期转动又快又波动。我的分析亦要因时制宜，可以很快就改变。」
71. 市场一般对泡沫的看法是负面。因为泡沫爆破后一切化为乌有，如1997年香港楼市泡沫、2000年科技泡沫后，不少人身家大缩水，甚至惨变负资產。谢清海则认为泡沫是中性的，有好又有坏。
72. 投资内地 内陆胜沿海「泡沫形成初期是很开心的。因为资產价格升值，股市及楼市大升產生不少财富。「最麻烦是泡沫挥之不去，甚至爆破，届时造成负面影响，拖累经济。但相信中央亦会出手，避免泡沫爆破引来的恶果。」
73. 亦正因为泡沫初期会推高资產价格，所以地產股在泡沫未爆破前，仍可看高一线。虽然谢清海认为内地存有泡沫，但整体而言亦是看好内地市场发展，尤其是内陆地区的投资机会。
74. 「一些沿海地区以出口为主，最受环球市道影响；反而一些位於内陆的城市，如湖南及四川，可能靠本地消费及固定资產投资，已经有好好的增长，因此资金已转往内陆地区投资。」谢清海解释。
75. 事实上，目前内陆投资增长较沿海大城市更快。以今年首五个月各地区城镇投资情况为例，湖南、四川及黑龙江的城镇投资，按年升幅分别为37.5%、55.2%及50.8%；相反，上海、福建及广东按年投资金额，只按年上升5.2%、14.7%及14.1%。
76. 一旦内地经济泡沫爆破，经济上已与内地唇齿相依的香港，又会有何震盪？谢清海相信打击有限。「香港已经是一个很成熟的市场，而且港人亦经歷过很多次泡沫爆破经验，变得更为小心。」
77. 总结：泡沫爆破前享受股市升势
78. 谢清海谦称对整体大市分析不是专家，没有对今年恒指定下目标价，只预期即使下半年市况波动，但仍然具有投资价值。
79. 谢清海更认为在资金涌入、通胀重临，甚至是在形成泡沫之初，正是投资股市及楼市大好机会，因为资產价格会很快地上升。
80. 但在环球经济尚未完全明朗化下，谢清海仍不忘告诫股民拣股不宜太进取，而是应该拣选具防守性的价值股。他始终深信，只有价值股才可给予长线投资回报。

Electric-car race could strain lithium battery supply

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10077965-54.html

The headlong rush to create electric cars for green-minded consumers may come with a significant economic and environmental cost.

Lithium ion batteries--the same used in electronic gadgets and laptops--have become the preferred battery type for plug-in hybrids and electric cars now starting to come to market.

That swelling demand has some industry observers concerned that there will be a shortage of the metal lithium, the material used to make the batteries.

"You can solve the transportation problem but end up creating an equally vexing commodity problem," said Matthew Nordan, president of emerging technology consulting firm Lux Research. "It's a big concern."
In the short term, auto companies will be able to bring plug-in hybrid cars to market as planned in the next few years. Production of lithium has increased since the 1990s to meet the demand for batteries in power tools and consumer electronics, said Brian Jaskula, the lithium mineral commodity specialist at the U.S. Geological Survey. Prices over the past few years have increased steadily as well, he said.

The white patch on the bottom of this NASA satellite image shows the Salar of Uyuni in Bolivia, considered a significant but unexploited deposit of lithium. Lake Titicaca is the large body of water to the north.

(Credit: NASA)

Longer term, though, the picture is less clear. Batteries for cars are expensive, which is the biggest reason that plug-in electric cars cost more.

"Prices in the last couple of years have slowly gone up," Jaskula said. "But if the Chevy Volt and other cars like that become a big raging success and the demand really increases but supply doesn't keep up, then the price will go up obviously."

Whether or not a global run on lithium pans out as projected by the worriers, the situation highlights an underappreciated risk when it comes to alternative energy, namely securing supplies of natural resources. In other words, if some green technologies are successful in displacing fossil fuels, there could be shortages of materials that most people never heard of before.

"In all these newfangled clean technology applications, quite often the ones that appear to have strong growth potential face a challenge in that they are reliant on some material that has been in short use to date," said clean-tech venture capitalist Rob Day, a partner at @Ventures. "Possibly, they don't have enough supply to fulfill (growth) requirements."

Other examples include indium, a material used in a new generation of low-cost CIGS solar cells, and coatings on solar panels, Day said. And for several years, researchers have sought to come up with an alternative material for expensive platinum, which is used as a catalyst in fuel cells, noted Barbara Heydorn, who is director at the center of excellence in energy at science research nonprofit SRI International.

Eye on South America

Today, Toyota's Prius hybrid electric cars have nickel-metal hydride batteries. Because of improvements in weight and storage in lithium ion batteries, though, a number of auto manufacturers will be using them in plug-in hybrids expected to come to market in the next two years.

General Motors, for example, plans to use lithium ion batteries for the Volt and the Saturn Vue plug-in hybrid, both of which are expected in late 2010. Toyota, too, is planning cars with lithium ion batteries, but it is said to be researching zinc air batteries for vehicles as well.

Today, lithium is extracted from dried salt ponds or "salt flats." A briny liquid underneath the surface is pumped out and dried in the sun. The dried material can be made into lithium carbonate, which is later processed to make lithium.

There are widely divergent views on whether the existing producers of lithium--most located in South America and China--can keep pace with an onrush of hundreds of thousands or millions of new plug-in hybrid cars in the next few years.

Energy and transportation consultant William Tahil of Meridian International Research last year rekindled the supply debate in a paper, which was followed by another paper (PDF) issued in May.

He concluded that lithium supply will be absorbed largely by the fast-growing consumer electronics industry and that increased demand for lithium production will worsen relations between the U.S. and Latin America.

With continued 25 percent yearly growth in portable electronics, there would only be enough lithium carbonate for 1.5 million Chevy Volt-type vehicles by 2015 with "optimum production increases," according to Tahil.

The results of Tahil's studies are disputed. Geologist R. Keith Evan, for one, calculated worldwide reserves and concluded there is an abundance of lithium to meet electric-car demand.

Tahil counters that the total inventory of lithium does not reflect the increased mining cost of getting lithium from sources other than lithium carbonate.

In addition, further exploitation of the world's largest salt flat, the Salar de Atacama in Chile, and the development of new sites, such the large reserves in Bolivia, would cause substantial damage to those ecosystems, Tahil and the USGS's Jaskula said.

"The point is that electric cars are supposed to be environmentally friendly cars and there are many other materials such as zinc and iron...which don't require any more environmental degradation than has already been done," Tahil said in an interview.

Financial analyst Craig Irwin, who is vice president of energy storage and energy efficiency at Merriman Curhan Ford, indicated that projected lithium supply has not dampened enthusiasm for the technology. He noted that lithium can also be extracted from different materials, including the mineral spodumene.

"There are two highly polarized camps," Irwin said. "The processing technology (for spodumene) is not entirely mature yet, but I don't think it's an insurmountable challenge."

Representatives from lithium ion battery maker EnerDel did not respond to a request for comment before publication. Another well-regarded lithium ion battery company, A123 Systems, declined to comment because it is in a quiet period before its planned public offering.

Commodity rules apply

For economic reasons alone, some businesses are taking a strategic approach to effectively sourcing materials, like lithium, for alternative energy technologies.

General Electric recently assigned a research scientist the full-time job of studying sources of materials that are critical to GE, which is investing heavily in battery technologies for transportation and grid storage.
GE was caught "behind the curve" when one material used in its aircraft engines shot up in price, so it's now looking for other "pinch points," said Mark Little, director of GE's research labs.

"The ability to supply batteries, including the raw materials, from a national security standpoint is a valid question which we should be posing. I don't know the answer," said Glen Merfeld, manager of the Chemical Energy Systems Laboratory at GE Research.

Because lithium is a commodity like oil, the same economics apply, said Ripu Malhotra, associate director at the chemical science and technology laboratory at SRI International.

Limits of mineral supplies lead to higher prices and an incentive to accumulate bigger reserves, he said. And the higher prices will spur investment in new extraction technologies from unconventional sources. For example, the price of corn shot up to meet a surge in ethanol demand. Now, producers are developing methods to use alternative feedstocks, like wood chips and grasses.

"These are brand new markets. If it truly becomes a limiting factor, prices go up and we find new sources of material or ways to recycle the material," SRI International's Heydorn said.

Better Place, for example, plans to install battery-charging stations in Israel, Denmark, and Australia to jump-start a rapid transition to electric cars. But a lithium shortage will mean its ambitious plans would need to be scaled back, according to Nordan.

Speaking at recent conference, Project Better Place co-founder and adviser Andrey Zarur acknowledged that the company is "betting big time" that recycling technologies and alternative to lithium ion batteries will emerge in the coming years.

Lithium ion car battery-pack suppliers themselves will have plenty of business in the years to come if sales come close to projections. But that growth will affect commodity prices, Nordan predicts. It's also leading to stepped-up research into alternative battery chemistries, such as nickel-metal hydride variants, zinc air, and magnesium.

"There's a flowering of interest in battery technologies with abundant materials," Nordan said. "Abundant materials are the words of the day."

 

Martin LaMonica is a senior writer for CNET's Green Tech blog. He started at CNET News in 2002, covering IT and Web development. Before that, he was executive editor at IT publication InfoWorld. E-mail Martin.

Read more: http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10077965-54.html#ixzz12QLRoCLS

China clean tech's rare-earth advantage

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-20013427-54.html

In the race to build hybrid cars and wind turbines to feed growing demand for green technology, China has one clear advantage: it holds the world's largest reserves of rare-earth metals and dominates global production.

Wind turbines, made by No. 2 wind turbine maker Xinjiang Goldwind Science and Technology, and hybrid cars, being developed by Warren Buffett-backed Chinese automaker BYD, are among the biggest guzzlers of rare-earth minerals, which analysts say are facing a global supply crunch as demand swells.

This little-known class of 17 related elements is also used for a vast array of electronic devices ranging from Apple's iPhone to flat-screen TVs, all of which are competing for the 120,000 tons of annual global supply.
China controls 97 percent of rare-earth production.

"Rare earth for China is like oil to the Middle East," said Yuanta Securities analyst Min Li.
Worldwide demand for rare earth is expected to exceed supply by some 30,000 to 50,000 tons by 2012 unless major new production sources are developed, say officials at Australian rare-earth mining company Arafura Resources.

China has curbed exports of the mineral since 2005 through quotas and duties, saying it needs additional supplies to develop its domestic clean-energy and high-tech sectors. On Wednesday, it said it would cut export quotas in 2010 by 40 percent.

"Export restrictions may provide an advantage to Chinese turbine makers, again because of the cost advantage," said CIMB analyst Keith Li.

He said Chinese green companies would have priority in securing supply of the metals over international peers and their proximity to sources of the minerals ensures quicker and cheaper long-term supply.
China's domestic consumption of the metals poses the biggest threat to global supply. The country, which holds a third of the world's reserves, eats up to 60 percent of global rare-earth supply for a wide range of applications from consumer gadgets and medical equipment to defense weapons.

China's trading partners have grown increasingly vocal about its move to cut its export quotas, but Beijing is determined to control the rare-earth market.

"Foreign companies could be facing some material supply risks, unless they decide to move production to China," warned Yuanta's Min Li.

Window of opportunity

But while China may ensure its first-tier green companies are given access to the rare elements, analysts agree this alone is unlikely to guarantee success for the Chinese clean-tech firms.

New technologies free of rare-earth elements could emerge that may undermine China's advantage, while further cuts in rare-earth quotas could trigger a political backlash which could force the nation to keep supply open for its trading partners.

"Chinese technology needs to develop quickly enough to make full use of that advantage," said CIMB's Li. "That window closes if its existing technologies fail to evolve."

Still China will have the upper hand in the global rare-earth market for a while yet.

There are currently many new mine projects outside of China in the pipeline but few will be able to compete with it on price unless governments offer production subsidies.

Low prices for rare-earth metals from China have undermined production and led to closure of several mines overseas. Lax environmental rules and cheap labor also allow China to sell rare earth metals at low prices.
Also, the development of new rare-earth mines could take as many as 10 years.

China's leading rare-earth company, Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare Earth Hi-Tech, is building 200,000 tons in rare-earth oxide reserves, and state media reported that the company is joining forces with Jiangxi Copper to set unified prices for rare-earth metals.

If supply becomes extremely tight as experts suggest, Chinese green companies may take upon themselves to secure the mineral by getting involved in the actual process of making rare-earth products, analysts said.
BYD is scouting for new sources of lithium, an important ingredient for its high-performance batteries.
Like that of rare-earth metals, lithium supply is expected to be tight by 2050, according to a European Commission study on critical raw materials. That is assuming most consumers would ditch their oil-guzzling cars for new-generation vehicles.

"BYD is looking for new supply of raw materials all over China, not just in Sichuan," said company spokesman Paul Lin in response to an inquiry about rumors that the company is buying lithium assets in the Chinese province known for its rich reserves of lithium and other materials. The company declined to make further comments about the rumored deal.

A sister company of rival Toyota has secured a lithium supply deal in Argentina, while Toshiba also plans to set up a rare-metals joint venture with Kazakhstan state-owned firm Kazatomprom.
Toyota, which makes the top-selling hybrid car Prius, and Nissan, maker of electric car Leaf, as well as General Motors, which designed plug-in hybrid Chevy Volt, are most vulnerable to a rare-earth supply crunch, analysts say.

A car like the Prius requires 1 kilogram (2.2 pounds) of neodymium. And each Prius battery uses 10 to 15 kilograms of another rare earth, lanthanum, said Jack Lifton, a commodities analyst and leading authority on rare metals.

Siemens and General Electric, which are investing in the development of direct-drive turbines for offshore wind generation, could also be facing risks in securing supply of the rare earth, they said.
Story Copyright (c) 2010 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.


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Rare Earth Metals – The Next Gold Rush?

http://dailytradealert.com/2010/10/01/rare-earth-metals-%E2%80%93-the-next-gold-rush/

October 1, 2010

By Tony Sagami, Uncommon Wisdom

China and Japan are having a small but potentially painful dispute over the ownership of a small chain of islands in the East China Sea.

These islands have very little significance other than the oil deposits that may lie around them. Whoever owns these islands would have claims to the mineral deposits on the ocean floors surrounding the islands.

Tensions heated up when a Japanese coast guard boat collided with a Chinese fishing vessel on September 7. Japanese authorities detained the Chinese captain and tough talk flowed from both sides.

The culmination was the temporary halt of exportation of rare earth metals from China to Japan.
Rare earth? No, I’m not talking about the 1970′s rock group nor am I talking about uranium or plutonium. I’m talking about a group of minerals that contain elements quite rare when discovered in Sweden in 1787.
Maybe you’ve never heard of rare earth metals, but you use them every day of your life. They’re used in things like cell phones, semiconductors, lasers, fiber-optic cable, plasma TVs, hybrid cars, microwave ovens, and scud missiles.

They — and just about anything electronic — contain some of the most obscure chemical elements on the planet known as rare earth metals.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has identified 17 elements that are considered rare earth metals, but nobody paid much attention to them until recent years because of the development of new technologies and electronic devices.

Most of the world’s advanced defense, medical, and high-tech electronics simply won’t work without rare earth metals. These metals have very special physical and chemical attributes, including high degrees of magnetism, luminosity, superconductivity and environmental non-toxicity.



These obscure metals are so critical to our modern world that they are as strategically important as oil, copper, uranium, natural gas, and coal. And I believe that an investment in rare earth metals will be even more lucrative.

And what’s this got to do with Asia? Tons! Keep reading and you’ll understand exactly what I mean and why an investment in rare earth metals could be the best natural resources investment you can make.
Reason #1: Booming Demand. Ten years ago, the world used 40,000 metric tons of rare earth metals a year. Today, the world uses 125,000 tons, but is expected to grow to over 200,000 tons by about 2014.
The reason for the soaring demand is simple: The world is building and consuming more high-tech devices. Plus, new demand from green energy initiatives is gobbling up all the rare earth metals that the world can produce.

The consensus of the forecasts I’ve read predict a 40,000-ton shortage by 2015.
The U.S. Magnetic Materials Association said, “It is estimated that Chinese domestic consumption of rare earth materials will outpace Chinese domestic supply between 2012 to 2015. It is unclear whether rare earth material will be available outside China in the coming years.”

Here is a link to a 2-minute Reuters news video about the demand for rare earth metals that I highly recommend you watch: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2CpFYCqZz8

No question, the world is headed for a supply/demand imbalance and that will push the price of rare earth metals higher. Much, much higher.

Reason #2: Global Supply Controlled by China. Until 1948, most of the world’s rare earth metals were sourced from placer sand deposits in India and Brazil when South Africa became the largest producer. India and South African still produce rare earth metals today, but China has zoomed past everybody since the 1980′s.

This number is almost hard to believe, but it is absolutely true: China produces and controls 95% of the world’s production of rare earth minerals. Yup, 95%!

The problem is that China currently uses about two-thirds of what it produces, but is on a consumption trajectory where it will use everything it produces in a few more years. When that happens, the U.S. and the rest of the world will be S.O.L.!

In September of last year, China announced plans to lower its export quota of rare earth metals to 35,000 tons per year in 2010-2015.

Wait, it gets worse. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is considering a total ban on exports of terbium, dysprosium, yttrium, thulium, and lutetium.

It’s part of a plan that Deng Xiaoping started almost two decades ago when he said that rare earth metals would “Do for China what oil did for Saudi Arabia.”

Reason #3: A Matter of National Security. Every piece — and I mean EVERY piece — of high-tech military warfare is made with rare earth metals, including precision-guided munitions, night vision goggles, radar, and lasers.

If we lost our supplies of rare earth metals, our country’s ability to produce many of these weapon systems would cease to exist. Since China controls 95% of the world’s supply of rare earth metals, we are extremely vulnerable.

The General Accounting Office said that the U.S. produced zero rare earth elements in 2009 and that it will take up to 15 years to rebuild our own domestic rare earth supply chain.

“The United States has the expertise, but lacks the manufacturing assets and facilities to refine oxides to metals. Refined metal is almost exclusively available from China,” states the GAO.

The U.S. Magnetic Materials Association said that the United States is already in a “silent crisis.” And that “it is unclear whether rare earth material will be available outside China in the coming years.”

In June of 2009, the U.S. House of Representatives passed HR 2647, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Section 828 of the Act included language concerning “the availability of rare earth materials and components containing rare earth materials in the defense supply chain.”

Section 828 noted that “less common metals” such as the rare earths and thorium were “critical to modern technologies, including numerous defense critical technologies and these technologies cannot be built without the use of these metals and materials produced from them and therefore could qualify as strategic materials, critical to national security.”

Representative Ike Skelton, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said “China is a rapidly rising military and economic power and the fact is that they cornered the market on these rare earth metals that are essential for a lot of our advanced weapons systems as well as a lot of manufacturing in the United States.”

Representative Mike Coffman said, “We need to move aggressively on this issue now before it’s too late.”
Between now and the 15 years that it will take to rebuild our own rare earth metal supply chain, you can bet that our Military Industrial Complex is going to be a big buyer and a big stockpile of rare earth metals, the price of which is certain to go much higher.

Reason #4: Green Energy and Rare Earth Metals. Rare earth metals are also a back door way to profit from the “green” revolution. That is because most of the green energy initiatives cannot function with rare earth metals. Three green technologies — hybrid cars, solar panels, and wind turbines — use mountains of rare earth metals.

▪ Hybrid vehicles, like the Toyota Prius and Honda Insight, are big users of rare earth metals. Each car has about 2 kg of neodymium in it rechargeable nickel hydride battery and another kilogram or so of lanthanum and praseodymium in the drive train.

▪ Solar panel efficiency is measured as a percentage of light energy that is converted to electricity. Silicon solar panels are 25% efficient, but the newest generation of solar panels called multi-junction solar panels have efficiencies greater than 40%. These solar panels use the rare metal indium.

▪ Every wind turbine tower has a massive, highly engineered electromechanical system in it that couldn’t operate without lanthanides.

Here is a link to a very informative video about the role that rare earth elements play in green energy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxZLKiQd0yk

The Green Energy revolution is still in its infancy and its inevitable growth will place huge demand for rare earth metals and send the prices through the roof!

Reason #5: Brain Drain to China. Getting the raw materials out of the ground is just the first step. The next and equally important step is to refine that dirt into ready-to-use form. Not only does China have the raw resources, they also have most of the production capacity: Metal production, alloying, strip casting, magnetic powder production and, ultimately, magnet production.

The rest of the world is scrambling to open up new rare earth mines, but it will take decades to build the refining capacity. The biggest obstacle, however, is that most of the experience and knowledge is in China and can’t be easily duplicated.

For example, the division of General Motors which deals with miniaturized magnet research shut down its U.S. office and moved its entire staff to China in 2006.

Reason #6: Not in My Backyard. The U.S. may talk about building its own rare earth supply chain, the reality is that mining and processing the finished materials is a dirty, polluting process and the environmental crowd in the U.S. will fight any efforts to build on American soil.

Here is a link to a CNN report on the environmental costs of rare earth metals mining.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yO94WHkqHg4

Look at the obstacles oil companies have had to get permission to opening new drilling fields or refineries. Nobody wants them in their backyard and rare earth metal refining is even worse. I can’t see any meaningful production capacity opened anywhere but third world countries that are willing to accept the pollution cost.
How can you invest in rare earth metals?

China Rare Earth Holdings produces about 20% of the world’s supply of rare earth metals which makes it the Saudi Arabia of rare earth metals. China Rare Earth Holdings trades both on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (0769.HK) and the U.S. over-the-counter market (CREQF.PK).

Avalon Rare Metals owns a large but untapped mine in Canada. It trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange (AVL) and the U.S. over-the-counter market (AVARF.PK).

Lynas Corporation has one of the richest deposits of rare earth metals in the world. It trades on the Australian stock exchange (LYC.AX) as well as the U.S. over-the-counter market (LYSCF.PK).
Molycorp (MCP) went public earlier this year on the NYSE. It owns the Mountain Pass mine in Southern California, the largest rare earth metals deposit outside of China.

I should to disclose that my Asia Stock Alert subscribers already own China Rare Earth Holdings and we are sitting on a huge open gain. Even though we have a big gain, I am holding on for even more profits.
You need to do your own homework and decide if any of these rare earth stocks are appropriate for your situation. These are very volatile stocks, so stay away if you don’t have a high tolerance for risk. The reward, however, should be big, big, big.

Best wishes,
– Tony Sagami

Source:  Uncommon Wisdom

Rare hopes for a Buffett bonanza

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=1&art_id=103853&sid=29941739&con_type=1

Beth Ye and Tony Liaw Friday, October 15, 2010

Rumors that US billionaire Warren Buffett will take part in a share placement by China Rare Earth (0769) has raised hopes the firm may be the next to get the "Midas touch" after PetroChina (0857) and BYD (1211).

The rare earth and refractory products maker is selling 100 million new shares to raise HK$395 million, Reuters reported.
At HK$3.95 each, the offer is a 10 percent discount to the stock's last closing price of HK$4.39 on Wednesday.
An over-allotment issue of 20 million shares could boost the total amount HK$474 million. Analysts estimate CRE's share price to soar after it resumes trading because of the "Buffett effect."

"CRE's share price will rise in the short term if the rumors is true," said Kingston Lin King-ham at OSK Securities. "But it may not be as much as 30 percent or 50 percent as the stock has already risen a lot."

Lin does not recommend CRE as a long- term investment because it does not have its own rare earth mines.
CRE shares almost doubled from a month ago before being suspended from trading yesterday. PetroChina shares jumped over seven times between 2002 and 2007, and BYD's shares rose nearly seven times in the last two years after Buffett bought stakes.

Meanwhile, CASH Financial Services Group (0510) plans to raise HK$73.9 million by issuing 70 million shares through a top- up placement with its parent company Celestial Asia Securities Holdings (1049).
These shares will be placed at HK$1.07 per share - a discount of 9.32 percent to its previous closing price of HK$1.18. CFSG resumes trading today.

Value Partners (0806) will raise up to HK$1.2 billion by issuing 140 billion shares through a top-up placement. The asset management firm is offering the shares at between HK$5.68 and HK$5.93 apiece, a discount of 5 to 9 percent discount to yesterday's close of HK$6.24.

张志铭或是国美的灵魂？

http://www.sino-manager.com/NewsShow.aspx?CurrDate=200936&PostID=2765

在许多熟悉国美发展的记者看来，黄光裕的成功可能更多是由于其运气比较好，而张志铭才是国美成功真正的幕后英雄和灵魂。2002年前当张志铭负责国美管理的时候，开启了国美发展的黄金时期。正是在这一阶段，国美开启了对外扩张的脚步，将原本只是北京市内的一个小家电商扩张到在国内拥有了巨大影响力的家电连锁巨头。“无论从开店速度，扩张地域，还是单店盈利，**声望等方面，1997年至2002年都是国美发展最好也是最健康的几年。”而自从张志铭离开国美管理岗位后，国美相对于苏宁的优势就在不断的缩小，并被逐渐的赶超。大家所说的国美地产的辉煌也其实是在张志铭的领导下取得的。

　　 通过明天地产的运作，张志铭终于获得了属于自己的一块财富和天地。

　　张志铭或是国美的灵魂？

　　一个巨大的荒凉工地。站在国美广场正在建筑中的围墙外边，你只能有这样的感觉。但是你仍然可以感受到它的庞大。在北京市西南四环的拐角处，即使距离非常远，也可以看到矗立、相邻的两座巨型建筑，A栋和B栋如果围着转一圈足有一公里远。门窗仍未安装上去，可以看到一个个黑洞一样的窟窿。这两座曾经承载着黄光裕最大地产野心的建筑在这样一个多事冬天所呈现出的样貌，以及他们出事的老板，都让人担心，它们会不会沦落成两栋烂尾楼。事实上两栋楼已经盖了四年，仍然没有完工。一旁的小工停下手中的活计，担忧地说：“老板出事了，我们也不知道要怎么办。”

　　地产迷局

　　荒凉的国美广场见证了黄光裕在地产领域中的失策。

　　黄光裕的地产系统一直是外界猜测最多，人们感觉最为神秘的一块资产。外界很多猜测，认为黄光裕将做家电所获得的资金转移到利润丰厚的地产领域。但是事实不尽然，黄光裕的地产投资根本就算不上有多么成功。

　　“黄光裕本人酷爱地产，有多么酷爱呢？甚至大家感觉，假如让他把家电那块资产卖掉，全部投向地产，他也愿意。”一位前黄光裕旗下地产高管这样形容。

　　但是黄光裕这种酷爱也是经历过一个过程的。很早黄光裕就进入地产领域，那还是在1996年，在北京南二环投资了鹏润家园，盖了数座高层塔楼。但那却是一个非常惨淡的记忆。不但发生了与业主的流血纠纷，最终也不得不大幅降价两千元才将尾盘售出。

　　很长时间以来，对这段经历黄光裕都心有余悸，多次表示“房地产行业风险太大”，要将主要精力用在家电零售业的发展。

　　让黄光裕改变看法的是他的小妹夫张志铭所开发的国美第一城项目。当时黄光裕任命张志铭担任旗下鹏润房地产公司的总经理，而张志铭也憋足劲希望在地产这一新领域施展一番拳脚。在一次交易中，鹏润地产拿到了国美第一城这块地。但最初黄光裕并不看好这一项目，认为过于偏僻，打算转让出去，但张志铭执意要自己开发。最后黄光裕答应，但是提出不提供资金，让张志铭自己解决。通过种种办法，张志铭从某银行石景山支行拿到了1.6亿元人民币的贷款，缴纳了土地出让金。很快国美第一城预售开盘。第一天销售就极其火爆，由于比周边项目便宜近两千元，引来了大量买房客，不到半个月便预售了一千套，成功解决了资金问题。之后，国美第一城又相继推出后续几期，最终销售达到三十多亿元，一举成为当年北京市单体销售最大的楼盘。就这样，在几乎没获得什么资源的情况下，张志铭统领的鹏润地产获得了一次大胜。

　　在国美第一城销售成功之后，黄光裕试图收回控制权，此举受到了张志铭的*。以往对黄光裕俯首帖耳的张志铭第一次表现了自己的强硬。在与黄光裕大吵一架之后，两人最终妥协，并达成协议，黄光裕认可张志铭对鹏润地产的控制，公司股份调整为黄光裕占60%，张志铭占40%。但黄光裕不再对鹏润地产进行投资，同时不管理，不分红。

　　后张志铭又注册明天房地产公司，将鹏润地产的名称和品牌还给了黄光裕，并又成功开发明天第一城。此后在为黄光裕缴清数亿元利润后，明天地产摆脱了黄的控制，成为张志铭与黄燕虹夫妇拥有的企业，张志铭成功单飞。明天地产最新的地产项目为位于北京回龙观地区针对年轻人的“东亚上北”。

　　张志铭的成功对黄光裕刺激很大。再加上同期顺驰正在全国到处攻城略地，黄光裕开始急迫的想进入地产行业。他很快注册了三家地产公司，国美置业，鹏润昊天，鹏润尊爵，分别由禹晋永、吴发强，以及长期跟随黄光裕担当资本项目助理的李松波任总经理。

　　三家企业的旗舰为国美置业。05年5月份，国美置业以总价8.05亿元成功竞得北京市年度最大的招拍挂项目，位于西南四环总建筑面积达56万平方米的全商业地产项目，规划名为“国美商都”（国美广场的前身）。但这却成为了黄光裕地产事业的一个黑洞。特别是号称曾经的香港售楼冠军，师从地产营销之父邓智仁的童渊上任国美置业总经理之后。

　　原本，国美广场地块招标地价并不昂贵，仅两千多元一平米，如果再加两千余元的建安成本之后，只要每平米销售五千元就基本可以保本盈利，但是童渊却不满足，一定要追求一种大胜！为此制定了每平米三万元的天价销售。对为什么要制定如此昂贵的价格，童渊振振有词，多次当着黄光裕的面解说他的理由：“我只要凭借三个字就可以，这三个字就是‘黄光裕’，因为黄光裕是商业奇才，中国首富。”童渊相信依靠黄光裕的号召力，他可以取得远比别人高得多的品牌溢价。然而现实却并不如意，为了等待他的业绩，黄光裕给了他近两年的时间，却始终未见，最终失去了耐性，将他解雇。而国美广场在更换了四任总经理，三度更名之后，仍然以一个半拉子工程呈现在人们面前。更糟糕的是，项目已经消耗了黄光裕十多亿元的现金和大量精力。

　　黄光裕旗下地产业务比较成功的只有鹏润尊爵李松波开发的位于重庆的“鹏润蓝海”项目，这个总体量为60多万平方米的大型楼盘虽然在今年下半年也遭遇到了楼市的低迷。但自去年开盘之后至今已经销售过半，至少保证不会亏损。不过，李松波在开发成功“鹏润蓝海”之后很快便被调回北京，之后迅速离职。

　　对黄光裕的鹏润地产而言，如果业绩不佳还不算太糟糕的话，更糟糕的还是其自07年之后开始的大规模囤地行动（碧桂园的杨惠妍夺走中国首富的名号给予他极大的刺激）。为了以资产包的形式打包进入中关村科技（000931），使其资产看起来更具吸引力，自07年以来，黄光裕在全国开始了大规模的囤地行动。如07年底在无锡以58500万竞得竞标了电瓶车厂地块；08年初数亿元竞拍下重庆解放碑国泰广场项目；一个月后又以25.55亿元的价格获得天津华明镇一块43.3万平米的土地；此外还有鹏润昊天在07年花六亿多元拍卖收购所得的北京铁路文化活动中心和昌平沙河住宅项目。除这些拍卖项目外，黄光裕下属公司还分别在北京朝阳区崔各庄、通州宋庄、张家湾等地签署了数个一级地产开发协议，涉及开发总面积达到惊人的一亿多平方米。

　　当人们为碧桂园在地产高峰时期大量囤地而抹一把冷汗，并用脚进行投票的时候，黄光裕的鹏润地产似乎做得也同样不够高明。

　　家电变迁

　　黄光裕的地产业务不够成功，而在其赖以起家的家电连锁领域，黄光裕在管理等方面同样存在诸多问题。

　　1997年成立鹏润地产之后，由于将精力主要集中在地产领域，黄光裕曾经在管理上离开国美电器一段时间。那时的国美电器由张志铭任总经理，副手分别为李俊涛、何炬等。当时正是家电连锁的起步时期，“很长一段时间里，家电连锁领域很多人都不认识黄光裕。大家知道的只有三张，张近东，张继升和张志铭”。

　　恰恰是黄光裕不直接管理，而由张志铭管理，却是国美发展的黄金时期。正是在这一阶段，国美开启了对外扩张的脚步，将原本只是北京市内的一个小家电商扩张到在国内拥有了巨大影响力的家电连锁巨头。“无论从开店速度，扩张地域，还是单店盈利，**声望等方面，1997年至2002年都是国美发展最好也是最健康的几年。”不少国美内部人士都持这种看法。

　　但2002年黄光裕从地产项目上铩羽，然后回归国美，将总裁之位直接加到自己头上，然后国美内部就开始“折腾”起来了。不断的进行机构调整，人事不停变化，让所有人都有些人心惶惶，无所适从。黄光裕有句学习韩国三星公司的口号：国美永久不变的就是变化。

　　变化的第一刀是将整个国美体系由一个总部统一管理突然划分为南北两个大区分治。黄光裕的原意是想在企业内部形成竞争，但事实却是人为地把国美的规模优势，尤其是采购的规模优势降低了，还导致了机构设置的重叠。这一试验在实行5个月之后便告失败，然后重新恢复成一个总部模式。

　　然后黄光裕又心血来潮，在2002年下半年开始实行采购与销售机构脱钩。然而这又造成了采购部门与销售部门的互相对立、互相推卸责任。到04年8月，采销中心又最终合并。而这已经算是国美坚持时间最长的一次变革了。

　　黄光裕另一次曾被人广泛诟病的是鹏润电器的开办。受百思买高端电器店开业的刺激，黄光裕制订了“鹏润电器”做高端电子消费品为主大卖场的定位，并委托调查公司进行调研，最终得到的市场分析与黄光裕的预期“几乎一致”，于是鹏润电器开业。但由于鹏润电器独立于国美电器，所有产品的采购渠道都得靠自己去开拓，除了极少数“新、奇、特”产品外，真正高端产品也就在17％至18％左右，与国美旗舰店没什么两样。采购规模上不去，导致供货价格高，再加上销售业绩非常惨淡，坚持数个月之后鹏润电器不得不重归国美系统。

　　与这些机构变化相伴的还有不断的人事大变动。“黄光裕不会容忍一个有功劳的人，特别是立大功的人。”一位离职的国美高管说。“类似张志铭这样的有功之臣在国美内部频繁的人事调整中已经不止五起五落。这也是他下决心一定要离开的一个重要原因。”而在黄光裕的手下，曾经受重用而走红，后又离开的包括帮助奠定了国美连锁制度基础的何炬，以及曾红极一时，担任过国美常务副总裁的华天等。而目前在位的王俊洲、李俊涛等人更是像乘坐升降梯一样，不断地从高位贬职，然后又回复到原位，而他们相互间地位的排列更是不断的变动。与家电业务相比，黄光裕手下的地产业务领头者变幻的更加频繁，如今已经走马灯似的更换了包括禹晋永、吴坤岭、童渊、王军等四五任人选。

　　投资失误

　　当然，黄光裕也曾做过许多很漂亮的事情，比如运作国美在香港的上市。虽然也要归功于香港资本市场对家电连锁模式的追捧，虽然在买壳过程当中还遭遇到了香港壳王詹培忠的勒索，买壳价格远远高出市场价，但是黄光裕能够持续不断的套现135亿，绝对是其他人难以想象。

　　不过显然黄的对外投资并不佳，导致在套现如此之多现金之后，黄光裕居然面临到现金紧缺问题。自九月底以来，黄所控制的香港上市公司国美电器（00493，HK）连续遭到投资者的抛售，其股价距离峰值已跌去五分有四（截止停牌，其股价报收于1.12元）。

　　在国美股价如此暴跌中，作为国美实际控制人的黄光裕却没有做出任何实质性的补救。譬如进行适当的股权回购，以保持股价维持在一定价格区间之上。原因在于，黄光裕手头的现金并不宽裕。目前国美电器的总市值已经萎缩至150亿港元左右，甚至不比黄光裕历年从股市中套现的现金多出多少。通常，李嘉诚等富豪在其控股公司出现巨幅暴跌时都会对股价进行一定援救，极端情况下甚至会对公司实施私有化。

　　让我们来看看近年来黄光裕的对外投资。首先，收购大中电器。虽然当初公布的收购主体是国美电器集团委托北京战圣投资公司进行的，但知情者透露，其资金主要来自于国美集团实际控制人黄光裕。如今看来，36.5亿元现金收大中的代价确实有些偏高。即便大中电器今年的利润能够如国美所宣称的达到2亿元，以36.5亿收购价计算折算成市盈率也高达18倍，而目前香港上市的国美电器市盈率仅为6倍左右。这也意味着，如果现在黄光裕将大中电器装入香港上市公司国美电器中，与其收购价相比，黄将净亏20多亿元。

　　如果说收购大中电器虽然短期内财务上亏损，还可以视为一项长期的战略性投资的话，那么对三联商社（600898.SH）的收购亏空更加严重。

　　为了收购三联商社，黄光裕通过战圣投资拍卖竞购三联商社的股权，前后两次共花费6.7亿元现金，却仅仅获得19.7%的股权。而三联商社本身只是一个烂摊子，9家连锁店，仅有1家自有店面，并且大部分店面租约都接近到期。在公司治理方面也存在相当大问题。在充分了解之后，国美电器总裁陈晓称三联商社已经“烂到头了”，并且还存在“三联商社原大股东为了获取更大利益空间，占用上市公司资金，上市公司为集团违规担保”等问题。前三季度三联商社又亏损了4418.69万元。

　　也即，三联商社仅具有壳资源的价值。但是花费近7亿的现金仅仅购买一个烂壳说什么都难交代过去。一名三联商社的前高管表示，收购决定的那一刻更多是黄光裕的征服感在作祟，将一个原先平起平坐的公司收进来极大的满足了他征服的愿望。而这种征服感却是以花费数亿元人民币为代价的。

　　除这些之外，为入主中关村股份（000931.SZ），黄光裕通过旗下鵬泰投资收购中关村15%的股权。据有关统计，之后黄通过旗下鵬泰、鹏泽等公司通过回购资产等方式已累计向中关村输血9.1亿元，到现在仍无法重组成功。这可以被看作首富先生的又一个潜在的亏损。

　　在黄光裕的投资组合里，还有去年与如今已经破产的国际大投行贝尔斯登联合组建5亿美元的零售业投资基金，以及与新加坡太平星集团成立的总额达8亿美元投资房地产业的私募基金。虽然未见两只基金的消息，但在当前低迷的市道下，也很难有什么大的发展。

　　正是这些并不成功的投资，导致黄光裕在这个经济低迷、现金为王的时期里并没有手握更多的现金。在国美股价大幅下跌的情况下无所作为，只能收缩战线，无力大举扩张。

　　很显然，黄光裕的问题是其很多投资都是在资产估值高峰时期做出的。这显然犯了李嘉诚、巴菲特等财富大师一再告诫的要防止在高位买进的大忌。

　　黄光裕的最大问题还是在于他的自我膨胀。另一个前国美高层评论说：“黄光裕这个人真的是特别的聪明，而且小时候是苦出身，吃过很多苦，所以是个非常要强的人。在他内心里就是要不断的奋斗，就要做最强最棒的。而等他到了现在这样一个地位，他的心态就变得超级膨胀，认为自己已经无所不能。说一不二，任何事情，只有他自己拍板才是对的。别人拍板的，不经过他都不行。所以，在国美很少会出现敢于主动出头的人。就比如这次事件，很多人都不太敢出头，所以最初出的是一个所谓的七人委员会。”自我膨胀表现在黄光裕根本就没有耐心听别人讲太长的东西，总是嫌别人说的慢，经常指着人讲：“快说！”

　　一位曾接触过黄光裕的咨询界人士也认为，黄的问题主要是他太年轻了，而成功来得又那么轻易，必然导致他的自我膨胀意识。

　　黄光裕未实行下去的商业梦想

　　国美音像连锁：2006年黄光裕曾经计划在一年之内便在全国开设600家音像店，采用街面店、社区店和超大规模的旗舰店等，但最终这些计划很快便无疾而终。

　　国美医药连锁：2006年黄光裕和全球第一大医药连锁店美国Walgreens共同出资成立的国美医药股份有限公司计划投入20至30亿元资金，在全国打造国美医药门店。但由于药监局的认证方面的问题以及商业模式的质疑，最终项目撤销。

　　国美百货连锁：国美曾经试图以并购的方式进军百货行业，计划收购一家成熟的百货公司，然后以其为班底，再整合扩大，但因未能找到价格合适而业务又好的收购对象，最终不了了之。

　　鹏润家电：高端定位，最终失误。

　　电视购物：2006年国美曾表示试图进入电视购物系统，但未有具体行动。一个月前又重新提出这一业务方向，据说可以充分利用国美发达的店面网络系统进行销售和物流的配送。