122只高送转潜力股披露：10送10还是10转8

http://www.etf88.com/jjb/2010/0113/304088.shtml

作为两市第一家披露年报将高送转的公司，升势凌厉的禾盛新材（002290）昨天又涨停了，7天暴涨48%的财富效应让“高送转概念”备受市场热捧。


　　

　　本报记者获悉，为了提前知道哪些股票存在高送转题材，券商和基金研究员近期发动全部力量去打探。

　　

　　江苏一家去年刚上市的中小板公司董秘对记者说，上周他起码接到40多家机构的电话，“都是来问年报是否有高送股高派现预案的，还有机构‘威胁’我们没有10送10就抛售”。

　　

　　那上市公司会提前告诉机构吗？“会的。不少机构是公司的股东，我们要尊重股东的意见。当然，公司也要考虑到自身的发展，送股无所谓，分红就要仔细讨论了。”

　　

　　申银万国人士对记者说，他们并不是漫天撒网，“从财务来讲，高公积金、高未分配利润、高净资产的‘三高’公司我们才会主动去沟通，毕竟他们有分配的实力。”

　　

　　此外，他透露，有市值管理动机的公司会主动和机构联系，透露高送转意向，“刚完成资产注入的公司，财务投资解禁期在上半年的公司，都有扩大股本的需求。”

　　

　　记者了解到，多家大机构的内部论坛上都会随时更新“高送转股票名单”，分配方案大多是从上市公司高层处获悉，非常具体。“其实高送转只是一个传说，相信的人多了，就变成了股价上涨的依据。”

　　

　　昨日，记者从内部渠道拿到了四家大券商手中的最新高送转股票名单，整理后独家奉献给读者。

　　

　　需要提醒的是，高送转预案只是公司董事会的初步意向，有些还只是个构思，能否真正实施还需要股东大会的讨论通过。此外，部分股票涨幅已大，追高具有一定的风险。

　　

　　可能10送转10的公司：

　　

　　江山化工（002061）、太阳纸业（002078）、金螳螂（002081）、新华都（002264）、久其软件（002279）、保龄宝（002286）、华锐铸钢（002204）、辉煌科技（002296）、洋河股份（002304）、特锐德（300001）、神州泰岳（300002）、探路者（300005）、大龙地产（600159）、美都控股（600175）、宁沪高速（600377）、中兵光电（600435）、扬农化工（600486）、江西长运（600561）、中珠控股（600568）、青岛啤酒（600600）、豫园商城（600655）、三安光电（600703）、航空动力（600893）、兴业银行（601166）、友好集团（600778）、新安股份（600596）、人福科技（600079）、闽东电力（000993）、东方园林（002310）、大洋电机（002249）、东方雨虹（002271）、四创电子（600990）、青松建化（600425）、科达机电（600499）、广东鸿图（002101）、华孚色纺（002042）、燕京啤酒（000729）、生意宝（002095）、中国医药（600056）、新疆广汇、福建高速（600033）、同力水泥（000885）、上海物贸（600822）、亨通光电（600487）、帝龙新材（002247）

　　

　　可能10送转8的公司：

　　

　　名流置业（000667）、海信电器（600060）、报喜鸟（002154）、中南建设（000961）、祁连山（600720）、龙元建设（600491）、晋西车轴（600495）、栋梁新材（002082）、永新股份（002014）、武汉健民（600976）

　　

　　可能10送转5以上的公司：

　　

　　建峰化工（000950）、电广传媒（000917）、阳光城（000671）、小商品城（600415）、西水股份（600291）、苏宁电器（002024）、深长城（000042）、龙净环保（600388）、九鼎新材（002201）、洪都航空（600316）、海螺水泥（600585）、国阳新能（600348）、广宇集团（002133）、歌尔声学（002241）、大华股份（002236）、长城电脑（000066）、滨江集团（002244）、安琪酵母（600298）、禾盛新材、中天科技（600522）、中恒集团（600252）、云维股份（600725）、西山煤电（000983）、潍柴动力（000338）、万家乐（000533）、天宝股份（002220）、思源电气（002028）、升达林业（002259）、山东黄金（600547）、三维通信（002115）、仁和药业（000650）、潞安环能（601699）、九洲电气（300040）、金种子酒（600199）、家润多（002277）、华丽家族（600503）、华兰生物（002007）、恒星科技（002132）、合肥三洋（600983）、合肥城建（002208）、航天信息（600271）、海正药业（600267）、成霖股份（002047）、北纬通信（002148）、鱼跃医疗（002223）、信立泰（002294）、双鹭药业（002038）、马应龙（600993）、罗莱家纺（002293）、乐普医疗（300003）、华邦制药（002004）、红日药业（300026）、安科生物（300009）、爱尔眼科（300015）、渝三峡、宗申动力（001696）

　　

　　其他高送转公司（方案不详）：

　　

　　远光软件（002063）、亿阳信通（600289）、亚太股份（002284）、穗恒运A（000531）、瑞泰科技（002066）、齐心文具（002301）、两面针（600249）、锦龙股份（000712）、华新水泥（600801）、华东数控（002248）、红太阳（000525）

China Trade Rebound Aids Global Recovery as Imports Climb 56%

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-01-10/china-trade-rebound-aids-global-recovery-as-imports-climb-56-.html

Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- China’s exports surged in December and imports rose to a record in a stronger-than-forecast trade rebound that may lessen the case for governments to sustain stimulus programs this year.

Exports climbed 17.7 percent from a year earlier, the first increase in 14 months, and imports jumped 55.9 percent, the customs bureau said on its Web site yesterday. Year-on-year comparisons are affected by declines from late 2008 as the global credit crisis deepened.

China’s central bank last week guided three-month bill yields higher for the first time since August, suggesting that the government wants to rein in liquidity to limit the risks of real-estate bubbles and resurgent inflation. Stronger exports may fuel overseas calls for gains by the yuan against the dollar after policy makers halted appreciation for 17 months to help manufacturers weather slumping demand.

“A global recovery is gaining momentum and countries’ exits from stimulus may come earlier than expected, including for China,” said Wang Hu, a Shanghai-based economist at Guotai Junan Securities Co., the nation’s largest brokerage by revenue. “Soaring imports are more evidence that China’s economy may face an increasing danger of overheating.”

China’s State Council pledged yesterday to step up “guidance” of property lending and counter inflows of speculative capital after a record expansion of credit in 2009 that was part of government efforts to prop up growth.

Surprise for Economists

China overtook Germany as the world’s No. 1 exporter of goods in 2009 even as the Asian nation reported yesterday its first annual decline in shipments in more than 25 years.

The data “could add more pressure on the renminbi,” said Lu Ting, an economist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong, using another term for the yuan. The “handsome recovery of China’s external trade” mirrored gains by other nations in the region, Lu said.

Taiwan reported its biggest export gain in 14 years in December after shipments plunged a year earlier.

Export gains may make China, the world’s fastest-growing major economy, less dependent on government stimulus measures, including spending on railways, roads and power grids.

$18.4 Billion Trade Surplus

In December, exports were $130.7 billion and imports were $112.3 billion, leaving a trade surplus of $18.4 billion. The customs bureau said the import value was unprecedented and exports were the fourth-largest on record.

“The rebound in export growth is no surprise given the collapse in trade at the end of 2008,” said Brian Jackson, an emerging-markets strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong. “But this is still good news and reflects a real improvement in external demand.”

Among other positive signs for the global economy, the International Monetary Fund has said it will probably raise its estimate for 2010 world growth from 3.1 percent. European executive and consumer confidence jumped in December to a level last seen before the demise of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008, a report showed last week.

For the full year, China’s exports fell 16 percent and imports declined 11.2 percent. The trade surplus was $196.1 billion, sliding for the first time since 2003 and falling short of 2008’s record $295.5 billion.

Solid Foundations

December’s numbers show the slump is over for China’s exporters, Huang Guohua, a statistics official with the customs bureau, said yesterday in an interview broadcast on state television. That comment contrasts with Chinese leaders saying in the past month that the economic recoveries of China and the world are not yet on solid foundations.

Chinese imports are being boosted by the nation’s economic acceleration, manufacturers buying materials for processing into exports, and an increase in commodity prices. On the nation’s east coast, Qingdao Port Group Co. is expanding wharves to handle iron-ore imports.

“Surging imports show that the economic stimulus policies are effectively boosting domestic demand, which also helps to drive the global economic recovery,” the customs bureau said in a statement.

For all of 2009, iron-ore imports surged 42 percent from a year earlier, those for copper and its products soared 63 percent, and purchases of aluminum and its products climbed 164 percent, the data showed.

‘Absolutely Not’

While Premier Wen Jiabao said Dec. 27 that the nation will “absolutely not yield” to calls for currency gains, yuan forwards indicate that the government will allow appreciation of 3 percent against the dollar in the next year. The yuan closed at 6.8275 per dollar on Jan. 8.

Yuan forwards rose to their highest level in more than a month on Jan. 8 after the central bank guided the increase in three-month bill yields. The currency gained 21 percent in three years after a fixed exchange rate was scrapped in July 2005.

China surpassed Germany in 2007 to become the third-largest economy and is forecast to overtake Japan this year, assuming the No. 2 spot behind the U.S.

Germany shipped 734.6 billion euros ($1.05 trillion) of exports in the first 11 months of last year, the Federal Statistics Office said Jan. 8. That compared with China’s $1.07 trillion over that period.

--Paul Panckhurst, Li Yanping. Editors: Paul Panckhurst, James Regan.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Anstey at +81-3-3201-7553 or canstey@bloomberg.net

PSA SP SGD <EQUITY> CN

-0- Jan/10/2010 16:00 GMT

SouthGobi starts pre-marketing for $400 million HK IPO

http://www.financeasia.com/article.aspx?CIaNID=119715&s=southgobi

By Anette Jönsson  |  5 January 2010  

Last November the Canadian-listed coal company with mines in Mongolia attracted CIC as an investor, now Hong Kong investors will get their chance to buy a share.

Bankers and market watchers are predicting that natural resources and commodities will be busy sectors in 2010 in terms of new listings and, deeming from the activity on the first trading day of the year, these predictions seem to bear out. Alongside Russian aluminium giant United Company Rusal, yesterday also saw the start of investor education for the Hong Kong listing ofSouthGobi Energy Resources, which may raise about $400 million, according to sources.

Technically SouthGobi isn't an initial public offering since the company is already listed in Toronto, but it is the first time the stock will be offered to Hong Kong retail investors and many institutional investors in this region are also unlikely to have it in their portfolios. That doesn't mean that SouthGobi -- a Canadian coal producer with all its operations in Mongolia -- is an unknown company, however. In fact, it got quite a lot of press in November when China Investment Corp (CIC) invested $500 million into the company in the form of 30-year convertible debentures. That nod of approval is expected to help attract other investors to the stock during the upcoming offering.

Indeed, people close to the deal say the company and the two bookrunners are in talks with at least a few investors who are interested in supporting the deal as cornerstones. These discussions are expected to be firmed up this week ahead of the launch of the formal roadshow and bookbuilding next Monday.

One of the things that attracts investors to the company is the fact that its flagship project, the Ovoot Tolgoi mine, is located only 40 kilometres from the Chinese border. This is important since one of the key issues with mining in Mongolia is transportation, both within and out of the country. In fact, industry insiders have turned away from seemingly lucrative opportunities in this resource-rich country because of the lack of a functioning transportation infrastructure.

SouthGobi is currently transporting its coal to China by truck, but part of the proceeds of the share offering will go towards the construction of a railway line to the border, which should improve the efficiency and lower the costs further.

Other positives, according to sources, include the company's lower costs compared with its competitors in China and the high quality of its coal.

According to a preliminary listing document posted on the Hong Kong stock exchange website,SouthGobi produces both thermal coal, which is used primarily in power plants, and coking coal, which is often used as fuel when smelting iron ore in blast furnaces. Aside from the Ovoot Tolgoi mine, it has two other development projects -- the Soumber deposit and the Ovoot Tolgoi underground deposit. The company also holds 18 mineral exploration licences in Mongolia.

The company started mining at the Ovoot Tolgoi mine in April 2008 and began selling coal in September the same year. All the coal it produces is sold to customers in China. So far, the company has sold about 1.1 million tonnes of coal from this mine, but according the listing document, independent technical expert Norwest believes it is possible for its production from this one mine to increase to about 8 million tonnes per year from 2012 onwards.

SouthGobi says an expansion of this mine is one of its priorities and estimates that the capital expenditure related to such a ramp-up will be about $140 million until the end of 2012.

However, the offering isn't without risk. For one, the company has a limited track record, it hasn't generated any profits and so far, cash flows are still negative. In 2008 it posted a net loss of $69.6 million and in the first nine months of 2009, the loss was $41.7 million. For the full year 2009, the company is expecting a loss from continuing operations of no more than $53 million and a net loss of $135.8 million. The latter includes a non-cash financing cost of up to $71.4 million caused by the change in fair value of embedded derivatives on the convertible debentures bought by CIC.

While these losses should eventually turn into profits, they make it more difficult for potential buyers to judge the business and the growth. On the positive side, investors will get a low-cost company with a strong growth potential and a much more transparent management than they would buying into a pure Mongolian miner - should that even be possible. The listing candidate is currently 78.7% owned by Ivanhoe Mines, a Candian company that has been publically listed since 1996 and currently trades in Toronto as well as on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. Ivanhoe too has a mining project in Mongolia, in partnership with Rio Tinto, although this mine produces gold and copper. It also has mining operations in China, Australia and Kazakhstan

SouthGobi is seeking to sell 16.8% of its enlarged share capital as part of the Hong Kong listing. As usual, 10% of the deal will be earmarked for Hong Kong retail investors, but on top of that, there will also be a 15% Canadian tranche for investors who would rather have their shares listed in Toronto. All the shares will be new.

The fact that the company is already listed means investors already have a live price to guide them in terms of valuation. However, SouthGobi isn't a particularly liquid stock and also it is not that well covered by the analyst community. Consequently, investors are likely to look to the Chinese coal companies that are listed in Hong Kong for a benchmark - companies like Shenhua Coal, China Coal Energy and Yangzhou Coal.

The Hong Kong public offering will run from January 15 to 20 and the final pricing is expected to be determined on January 22 -- the same day as Rusal will set its price. The trading debut is scheduled for January 29.

Citi and Macquarie are acting as joint global coordinators and bookrunners.

© Haymarket Media Limited. All rights reserved.

UPDATE 2-SouthGobi Energy raising $400 mln in Hong Kong IPO

http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINTOE60305R20100104

Tue Jan 5, 2010 1:51am IST

* Hong Kong IPO follows Toronto listing

* To use proceeds to develop Mongolia coal assets

* Shares rise 4.3 pct, parent Ivanhoe gains 5 pct (Adds background, stock reaction. In U.S. dollars unless noted)

HONG KONG/TORONTO, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Canada-listed coal miner SouthGobi Energy Resources (SGQ.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) plans to raise about $400 million from a Hong Kong initial public offering this month, according to a term sheet obtained by Reuters.

The news sent shares of SouthGobi up 4.3 percent on Monday, and lifted shares of its 80 percent owner, Canada-based Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.TO:Quote, Profile, Research) by 5 percent.

SouthGobi, which started IPO premarketing on Monday, is focused on expanding its coal production capacity in Mongolia, centered around its Ovoot Tolgoi mine. It said it would use the proceeds of the share sale to expand production capacity and access regional infrastructure.

The expected cash infusion follows a $500 million investment from China sovereign fund China Investment Corp [CIC.UL] announced in October, which SouthGobi also plans to use to expand its Mongolia development.

Ovoot Tolgoi's production target for 2009 was 1.5 million tonnes and it plans to eventually extract 8 million tonnes of metallurgical and thermal coal a year from Ovoot Tolgoi.

SouthGobi Chief Executive Alexander Molyneux told Reuters in December the company has more than 400 million tonnes of resources, and plans to add to that number.

The mine is located just 40 kilometers north of the Mongolia-China border and began selling coal to Chinese buyers in September 2008.

According to the term sheet, 75 percent of the offering would be allocated to institutional investors, 15 percent to Canadian investors and 10 percent to Hong Kong retail investors.

The company will kick off a marketing road show on Jan. 11, aiming to list on Jan. 29 under the symbol "1878" 1878.HK.

Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Macquarie (MQG.AX: Quote,Profile, Research) are handling the IPO.

Like SouthGobi, main shareholder Ivanhoe is based in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Ivanhoe, which was founded and is 23 percent owned by financier Robert Friedland, is currently developing the massive Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold project in Mongolia.

Rio Tinto (RIO.L: Quote, Profile, Research) owns a minority stake in Ivanhoe and is its funding partner on Oyu Tolgoi.

SouthGobi stock was up 74 Canadian cents at C$17.84 on the Toronto Stock Exchange, while Ivanhoe was up 75 Canadian cents at C$16.26.

($1=HK$7.75)

($1=$1.04 Canadian) (Reporting by Saeed Azhar and Kennix Chim in Hong Kong and Cameron French in Toronto; editing by Peter Galloway)

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Southgobi-Energy-Resources-Ltd-TSX-VENTURE-SGQ-1065149.html

Oct 26, 2009 08:30 ET

SouthGobi Energy Resources Announces Major Expansion of Coal Mining and Exploration in Southern Mongolia

Investment in coal production and processing to create 300 jobs and drive the development of regional infrastructure

Expansion supported by US$500 million convertible debenture financing by China Investment Corporation

HONG KONG, CHINA--(Marketwire - Oct. 26, 2009) - Alexander Molyneux, President and CEO of SouthGobi Energy Resources Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:SGQ), announced today that SouthGobi will accelerate the development of its Mongolian coal projects through its wholly-owned Mongolian operating subsidiary, Southgobi sands LLC.

SouthGobi's Mongolian investment program during the next three to five years is planned to include:

- Expansion of the Ovoot Tolgoi Mine. SouthGobi intends to expand the Ovoot Tolgoi open-pit mine to a targeted eight million tonnes of high-quality coal per year from the current sales target of 1.5 million tonnes for 2009. The mine is in Mongolia's South Gobi Region, approximately 40 kilometres north of the Mongolia-China border.

- Development of the Soumber deposit. SouthGobi intends to develop a separate coal mining operation at Soumber, approximately 20 kilometres east of the Ovoot Tolgoi Mine. Work is subject to completion of feasibility studies and securing appropriate licenses and permits.

- Development of regional transportation infrastructure. SouthGobi will continue investing in improvements to the regional road network at and around the Ovoot Tolgoi Mine. It also will evaluate opportunities to participate in the development of a cross-border rail link between the Ovoot Tolgoi Mine and the Mongolia-China border crossing at Shivee Khuren-Ceke. Ceke, on the China side of the border, is a major coal shipment terminal with rail connections to industrial customers.

- Construction of a coal washing facility. SouthGobi is conducting preliminary testing of the washability of its coals. Testing so far indicates that value, and jobs, can be added by processing some of its coal products in Mongolia to reduce sulphur and ash content and upgrade other specifications.

- Creation of approximately 300 new jobs. Based on studies of the planned investments, SouthGobi believes that its coal operations can play an even more significant role in expanding the regional economy through new jobs, skills training and new contracts with Mongolian suppliers for goods and services.

Mr. Molyneux said financing for the investment program has been secured from a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Investment Corporation ("CIC"), which will provide US$500 million in the form of a secured, convertible debenture bearing interest at 8.0%.

"Our continued exploration successes have significantly expanded our coal resources in Mongolia's South Gobi – and now we are in a position to develop our company into a prominent regional producer and exporter," Mr. Molyneux added.

"We recently announced our Measured and Indicated coal resource base, compliant with the Canadian NI 43-101 reporting standard, has increased from 221.2 million tonnes to 307.6 million tonnes, a jump of 39%. We also announced the initial resource at Soumber, an entirely new coal deposit in the South Gobi, and there is significant potential for other discoveries."

Mr. Molyneux said SouthGobi also was encouraged by the improving investment climate in Mongolia that has enabled the company to secure an attractive financing package.

"Through this expanded investment program, we can accelerate the transformation of Mongolian coal resources into jobs, enhanced prosperity and sustainable development for Mongolia. This is not just about expanding our mining capacity. This investment program will see us take the first step toward establishing value-added processing in Mongolia, which now is a priority for the Mongolian Government. SouthGobi's plans include building a large and sophisticated coal-washing facility to sell processed coal products. We also will work with Mongolian partners in building transportation infrastructure in the region."

Higher Mongolian government revenues, skills training and added-value products

SouthGobi's accelerated investment program will provide many benefits for Mongolia and the Mongolian people, including:

- Increased revenues to the Government of Mongolia through royalties, fees and taxes.

- Additional training, employment and professional development opportunities. As at the end of September, a total of 97% of Southgobi sands' 278 employees are Mongolian nationals and the company now expects to double its total employee base by 2014.

- The introduction of modern technologies to Mongolia to add value by manufacturing processed coal products.

- The stimulation of economic growth in the South Gobi Region and elsewhere in Mongolia. Southgobi sands already sources more than 90% of its supplies within Mongolia.

Key terms of the new financing facility

Following an extensive review of financing options and discussions with a number of major funds and financiers, SouthGobi has entered into an agreement with a wholly-owned investment subsidiary of CIC, which will provide US$500 million in financing required primarily to support the accelerated investment program in Mongolia. Up to US$120 million of the financing may also be used for working capital, repayment of debt due on funding, general and administrative expenses and other general corporate purposes. The proposed financing has received conditional approval from Canada's TSX Venture Exchange.

Key commercial terms of the financing include:

- Interest. 8% per annum (6.4% payable in cash and 1.6% payable in SouthGobi shares, where the number of shares to be issued is calculated based on the 50-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP).

- Term. Maximum of 30 years.

- Security. First charge over SouthGobi's assets, including shares of its material subsidiaries.

- Conversion price. The conversion price is set as the lower of C$11.88 or the 50-day VWAP at the date of conversion, with a floor price of C$8.88 per share. Assuming full conversion at the base price of C$11.88 and that any conversion occurs following SouthGobi achieving a 25% public float (on an as converted for the debenture loan basis), CIC's overall shareholding interest in SouthGobi would be approximately 22%.

- Conversion timing. SouthGobi and CIC each have various rights to call conversion of the debenture into common shares. CIC has the right to convert the debenture, in whole or in part, into common shares 12 months after the date of issue. SouthGobi has the right to call for the conversion of up to US$250 million of the debenture on the earlier of 24 months after the issue date, if the market price of its common shares is greater than C$10.66, or upon SouthGobi achieving a public float of 25% of its common shares under certain agreed circumstances. If SouthGobi fully exercises its conversion right immediately following its achieving a 25% public float (on an as converted for the debenture loan basis) and assuming conversion at the C$11.88 base price, CIC's initial shareholding interest in SouthGobi would be approximately 11%.

- Representation on SouthGobi Board. While the debenture loan is outstanding, or while CIC has a minimum 15% direct or indirect stake in SouthGobi, CIC has the right to nominate one director to SouthGobi's Board. SouthGobi currently has eight Board members.

- Voting restriction. CIC has agreed that it will not have any voting rights in SouthGobi beyond 29.9% if CIC ever acquires ownership of such a shareholder stake through exercising the debenture.

- Pre-emption rights. While the debenture loan is outstanding, or while CIC has a 15% direct or indirect stake in SouthGobi, CIC has certain pre-emption rights on a pro-rata basis to subscribe for any new shares to be allotted and issued by SouthGobi for the period which the debenture is outstanding. The pre-emption rights will not apply to new shares issued pursuant to pro-rata public equity offerings made to all shareholders, exercise of stock options and shares issued to achieve a 25% public float.

- Right of first offer. While a portion of the debenture is outstanding, or while CIC has a 15% direct or indirect stake in SouthGobi, CIC has the right of first offer for any direct and indirect sale of Ivanhoe Mines' ownership stake in SouthGobi. Ivanhoe Mines currently owns directly and indirectly approximately 105.8 million SouthGobi shares, or approximately 79.13% of SouthGobi's current issued and outstanding shares.

- Registration Rights. CIC has registration rights under applicable Canadian provincial securities laws in connection with the common shares issuable upon conversion of the debenture.

In conjunction with the financing, SouthGobi will also enter into a mutual co-operation agreement with a subsidiary of CIC. Under the terms of the agreement, CIC's subsidiary will provide advice and services to SouthGobi on matters that include sales to China, procurement and logistics, and will receive a customary commercial payment for such services based on product sales from Mongolia to China. If cumulative coal sales fall below 10 million tonnes during an initial five-year period (an average of two million tonnes per year), SouthGobi would be obliged to pay CIC's subsidiary a compensatory payment, less any amount previously paid under the co-operation agreement. This amount would be payable at SouthGobi's option in cash or common shares valued on the basis of the 50-day VWAP.

China Investment Corporation

CIC is the sovereign wealth fund of the People's Republic of China.

Information about CIC is available on its website: www.china-inv.cn/cicen/about_cic/aboutcic_overview.html

Transaction advisers

SouthGobi's financial adviser for the financing facility was Macquarie Capital Advisers. CIC was advised by Citigroup Global Markets Asia Limited.

About SouthGobi Energy Resources

SouthGobi Energy Resources is focused on exploration and development of its Permian-age metallurgical and thermal coal deposits in Mongolia's South Gobi Region. The company's flagship coal mine, Ovoot Tolgoi, is producing and selling coal to customers in China. The company plans to supply a wide range of coal products to markets in Asia.

Forward-Looking Statements: This document includes forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, Expansion of Ovoot Tolgoi Mine; Development of the Soumber Deposit; Development of regional transportation infrastructure; Construction of a coal washing facility; Plans to supply a wide range of coal products to markets in Asia; Conversion price; Conversion timing; and other statements that are not historical facts. When used in this document, the words such as "could," "plan," "estimate," "expect," "intend," "may," "potential," "should" and similar expressions are forward-looking statements. Although SouthGobi Energy Resources believes that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, such statements involve risks and uncertainties and no assurance can be given that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ from these forward-looking statements are disclosed under the heading "Risk Factors" in SouthGobi Energy's Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations for the year ended Dec. 31, 2008, and each of the months ended March 31, 2009, and June 30, 2009, all of which are available at www.sedar.com.

The TSX Venture Exchange has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

For more information, please contact

SouthGobi Energy Resources Ltd.
Alexander Molyneux
President & CEO
+852 6111 4281
or
SouthGobi Energy Resources Ltd.
Steven Feldman
Investor Relations Manager
+1 604 681 6799
www.southgobi.com

Telestone Technologies (TSTC) - Small Cap Chinese Telecom Equipment Maker; Some Services to Boot

http://www.benzinga.com/63405/telestone-technologies-tstc-small-cap-chinese-telecom-equipment-maker-some-services-to-boot

Posted on 12/15/09 at 1:54pm by tradermark

Much like SmartHeat (HEAT) which we mentioned at the beginning of the month [Dec 3, 2009: IBD - SmartHeat: Heating Equipment Maker Benefits as China Spends to Clean its Air], there are quite a few small-ish cap Chinese stocks flying almost every day.  Many are the "same old, same old" names that ran in 2007 and first half 2008 (especially in alternative energy, or solar) chock full of momentum traders, but there are some other interesting companies surging. One potential story is Telestone Technologies (TSTC) which might be a (very) poor man's Starent Networks (STAR) [an old holding of ours, bought up by Cisco)  Website here.

Telestone provides Local Access Network Solutions, products and engineering integration to telecom carriers. In terms of 2G technologies, Telestone is a main supplier in wireless access coverage infrastructure building for the GSM and CDMA network base on its RFPA technologies primarily in the PRC. The products; repeaters, line-amplifiers, antennas and radio accessories are all based on RFPA technologies.

After intensive research on the demands of carriers in 3G technologies, based on its strong R&D capabilities in both wireless and Fiber-Optics, Telestone has invented its WFDS unification local access network solution and products which are highly welcomed by all telecom carriers and property owners. Telestone also provides services that include project design, project manufacturing, installation, maintenance and after-sales services. Telestone currently has approximately 1,200 employees.

Anything that touches "3G" or the comimg "4G" I am interested in... Chinese alternatives even more compelling.  Thus far the bread and butter business has been 2G, so the risk factors is obviously technological migration - but it seems to be doing something right.  At just under $200M in market cap this is smaller than my usual fare, but its quarterly revenue amount is large enough to consider... although it's touchy.  However, the revenue growth percentage is off the charts, and the shares outstanding (10.4 million) are very low (allowing great EPS growth) so combined with the stock movemenet - hard to dismiss.

This name has only been on my radar since mid November, but already its jumped from $11 to $17 - in this market those who don't buy, lose.  You can see it's actually tripled since early fall.

[click to enlarge]

Below we'll look at both the latest earnings report and a nice introductory piece at TheStreet.com.

November 12th earnings report

Revenue

• Revenues for the third quarter ended September 30, 2009 increased 124.7% to $18.9 million compared to same period of 2008. Telestone revenues are a combination of equipment and service sales.
• Equipment sales, which totaled $11.1 million, are attributed to the Company's shipments of its proprietary 2G and 3G local wireless access network equipment, manufactured for specific customer site installations.
• Service revenue, which totaled $7.8 million, is a combination of billable system integration and installation charges by Telestone's project design and implementation engineers.
• Total revenue growth for the quarter was directly attributed to the Company's sales of 2G and 3G network installations throughout China.
• In addition, a growing contributor to the Company's revenues is its Wireless Fiber Option Distribution System(TM) (WFDS(TM)) which accounted for about 20% of Telestone's revenues for the quarter. WFDS(TM) systems provide "multi-play" capabilities for media, voice, fax, closed circuit TV, data and all three protocols of Chinese cellular signals over a fiber optic cable routed directly into an installation site. WFDS(TM) is a certified-technology by the three Chinese telecommunications companies; China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom, and was recently approved by the FCC of the United States in September of this year.

Cost of Goods; Margins

• Costs of goods sold were $10.0 million in the third quarter of 2009 which yielded gross profits of $8.9 million. Costs of goods are comprised of components used in the manufacturing of Telestone's 2G and 3G product line and installation costs of project management and labor costs at commercial and residential customer locations.
• Specifically, cost of equipment sales totaled $7.1 million, yielding gross margins of 36.0% while cost of services totaled $2.9 million, yielding gross margins of 62.8%. Blended gross margins were 47.2% compared to 46.9% for the third quarter of 2008. 

Operating Expenses - dropping nicely

• Total operating expenses for the quarter were $3.3 million, or 18.0% of revenues. Third quarter operating expenses as a percentage of revenues decreased 9.20 percentage points compared to the same quarter in 2008. The decrease in percentage for operating expenses is primarily due to the fact that expenses are rather fixed in nature. As a result, operating income increased 223.6% to $5.5 million in the quarter compared to $1.7 million recorded in the third quarter of 2008.

 
Taxes - large benefit for 3 year period due to type of company it is; something the US could learn from; 15% go forward

• Telestone maintains a 24% effective income tax rate for the quarter. However the taxes paid in the third quarter were not only for the net income in the quarter, but also including taxes due in previous quarters. As a High and New Technology Enterprise in China, the Company expects its income tax rate to be 15% for a three-year period.

Net Income:

• Net income for the third quarter ended September 30, 2009 increased 281.8% to $4.2 million compared to $1.1 million in the third quarter of 2008.
• Net income margins for the quarter were 22.5% compared to 13.3% recorded in the third quarter of 2008.
• Earnings per share were $0.41 on 10.4 million fully diluted shares issued and outstanding, an increase of 272% compared to $0.11 reported in the third quarter of 2008.

The balance sheet is quite interesting with days sales outstanding apparently over 400 before some corrective actions - I've never heard of such a high number before.
 
There appears to be no analyst coverage... so I guess I will be it for now.
 
***************

Nice overview of the business at TheStreet.com from a guest author in October 2009.

• Telestone Technologies (TSTC) provides 2G and 3G wireless communication access coverage solutions to telecom companies such as China Mobile (CHL), China Telecom (CHA) and China Unicom (CHU) through its branch offices in China across 26 provinces.
• The Chinese government will spend $70 billion over the next three years on 3G initiatives. This creates both visibility and acceleration in TSTC's business.   TSTC has aggressive goals over the next two and a half years to increase its domestic market share from 5% to 33%, indicating that it intends to capture a good deal of government-allotted spending with its new WFDSTM technology.
• International business accounts for less than 5% of TSTC revenue. TSTC plans to expand its operations in the U.S. and other developed markets with its WFDSTM technologies, while serving those that are underdeveloped and behind the technology curve with its mature 2G technology to extend the life cycle of its 2G products.  (any large scale foreign wins would be huge for credibility, especially considering how small the company is - until proven otherwise let's dismiss this)
• In simple terms, the WFDSTM platform allows all aspects of a client's wireless and wired needs to be addressed as one comprehensive solution. WFDSTM has become more significant since China began granting third generation (3G) licenses during the first half of 2009. 3G systems put greater technical demands on the communication networks in buildings due to signal strength and frequency -- demands that WFDSTM can handle much more effectively than traditional wired and wireless solutions.
• Currently, TSTC is the only Chinese company offering a WFDSTM type platform. Even as competition enters the market, Telestone has a significant advantage because customers will likely be hesitant to switch to another provider with unproven reliability. Telestone believes that customers will gravitate to its services as the advantages it offers have the huge potential to save time and money.
• TSTC has issued 2009 guidance of $70 million in revenue, up 100% year over year. Based on its 2009 first-half performance, we assume TSTC can minimally maintain 17% net margins, implying an EPS figure of $1.14. (15% tax-rate assumption). Our EPS assumption is likely conservative, as Telestone's annual after tax margins are typically around 20%.

Challenges:

• As we followed the Telestone story for a couple of years, we witnessed the stock's peaks and valleys. However, it appears that the company finally has an opportunity to take a nice leap to the next level of growth -- an opportunity that we feel was hampered by the delayed launch of 3G in China, ultimately forcing customers to postpone spending.
• With the 3G launch out of the way, it appears that one more hurdle is impeding Telestone's progress. The company has been experiencing accounts receivable collection delays as a result of multiple factors including timing of capex and effective live network dates in addition to massive industry consolidation that occurred during the past year to create the big three providers of today.  (that explains the crazy high DSO I mentioned above)
• Per Telestone's 2009 second-quarter filing, operating cash flow is negative, although it balances annually. We are hopeful that increasing sales and improved collections will resolve this issue.

No position but wish I had....

药妆再添新军 资生堂上海家化分480亿市场蛋糕

http://news1.secutimes.com/20100105/76/27370275.shtml

2010年的药妆市场将从“三国时代”走向群雄称霸吗？在薇姿、理肤泉、雅漾共同霸占中国市场60％份额多年之后，资生堂、上海家化（600315）两大巨头今年不约而同地大举杀入这个年销售达480亿的领域。

　上海家化用8年打造出利润金牛佰草集之后，新目标则是让进入药店渠道的玉泽施展拳脚。记者日前获悉，上海家化在清妃、高夫、六神、美加净、佰草集之外，全力推进与瑞金医院联合研制的新药妆品牌，本月通过60多家医院及药房渠道上市。尽管家化集团董事长葛文耀向媒体表示，对该产品的竞争力相当有自信，但记者注意到，家化明显采取了稳健的试探策略，该品牌目前只有一款售价88元的保湿乳产品，且只在上海、浙江、江苏三地市场销售。

　　相较之下，资生堂显得更大手笔，其计划自3月起在药房渠道推出全新品牌“D Q蒂珂”。第一年将在北京、上海、广州等一线城市约600家药店销售，3年后计划进入1500家药店。资生堂总裁前田新造甚至称，在持续百货和专卖店的同时，资生堂将把新的药房渠道作为中国事业的第三大支柱。而从价格策略看，DQ系列160-360元的定价也与薇姿等近似，加上中心渠道的一致性，将与欧莱雅形成直接竞争。

　　“今年的药妆市场会很热闹。”业内人士均异口同声。2009年7月，马应龙（600993）推出针对黑眼圈的眼部护肤产品，三季度片仔癀（600436）公告与韩国科丝美诗合作研发药妆，12月霸王本草堂借力王菲，同样觊觎中国第一药妆品牌的名号。

　　据日化专家冯建军介绍，薇姿较好的专柜旺季可达一个月30万元的业绩，这令国内药妆难望其项背。冯建军认为，薇姿成功在于以强大的资本实力搭建起长效平台，而渠道对药妆的作用大约仅占20％。而盛世传美首席营销顾问吴志刚却认为渠道的作用要更大些，“在最好的渠道已被三大品牌霸占的情况下，如何将不够强势的渠道改造得更有吸引力，是对新晋品牌最大的考验。

http://info.yidaba.com/200912/290905411002100100020905716.shtml

12月26日，上海家化在其总部宣布上市玉泽品牌，正式进入医学护肤品（俗称：药妆）市场，这意味着我国药妆市场迎来了一位强有力的竞争者。上海家化董事长葛文耀表示，“目前中国药妆市场已被雅漾、理肤泉、薇姿占去了近60％的份额，这是一个上海家化必须要进入的战略性领域，此次药房渠道的拓展对于上海家化的战略布局意义非凡。”

中国药妆市场发展潜力巨大

　　医学护肤品在欧洲叫做药妆，在日本和美国称之为类药类化妆品，由于对研发技术和产品安全性的高要求，通常都只有具备一流实力的大公司才能在这个渠道深耕细作。相关市场数据显示，2004-2007年间，中国药妆市场的销售额年增长率均高达10-20%，2008-2012年，中国药妆市场预计将维持这一增长率，即10-20%，反应出国内药店销售护肤品市场良好的发展势头和巨大的发展潜力。

　　作为本土最大的化妆品集团，上海家化在中国已经拥有了近十个品牌，涵盖了从大流通领域到细分化再到院线各个环节：大流通领域里的六神、美加净、家安、可采，院线领域的佰草集SPA、露美，以及细分市场领域的佰草集、高夫、清妃、珂珂等，品牌梯队合理布局使其在日化行业激烈竞争中脱颖而出。上海家化表示其关注药妆领域已久，并且做了很多相关工作，此次推出的玉泽品牌产品是多年技术储备的成果，未来一两年内家化还会和专业皮肤科医院一起逐步完善和扩展品脾产品线。

　　葛文耀表示，“家化不会轻易推出医学护肤品牌，除非我们认为它已经比竞争对手的产品更好，这就是为什么我们准备了6年，现在我们已有充分的实验数据表明此次推出的玉泽产品的功效甚至要好于目前国际市场上最受欢迎的2款药房销售的产品。”

在定价上，上海家化采取了略低于薇姿、雅漾和理肤泉等同类产品的策略。葛文耀表示，这也是出于对消费者接受程度和竞争程度的考虑。上海家化事业二部部长黄震告诉记者，“今后家化更多药妆产品的价格会根据市场接受度来制定。”

　　竞争激烈 特点至上

　　据Synovate市场研究数据显示，2004年－2007年间，中国药妆市场的销售额年增长率均高达10％－20％，2008年－2012年，中国药妆市场预计将维持这一增长率。

　　事实上，从1998年7月，薇姿VICHY将药房专销护肤品的概念带入中国以来，理肤泉、雅漾等品牌也相继跟进。目前，国内已有马应龙、同仁堂、片仔癀、云南白药等170多家制药企业涉足药妆市场，国外的日化和制药巨头们也在摩拳擦掌。

　　今年7月，“马应龙”推出了主要针对黑眼圈的“八宝去黑眼圈眼霜”，强调“药”的成分。已进入药妆市场有五年的同仁堂，未来5年规划显示，将研发300种新产品，其中1/3为化妆品。宝洁公司在年中财报中表示，计划在药店内出售其美容产品，将药妆作为扩大市场的突破口。

　　由此看来，尽管中国药妆市场存在巨大发展空间，但随着越来越多的企业加入战团，竞争也必然更加激烈。

　　冷静面对严酷竞争现实

　　目前，中国药妆市场年均增长率是欧洲市场的两倍，市场发展潜力巨大。但是，目前国内药妆市场几乎被薇姿、理肤泉、雅漾等国外品牌所垄断，留给国产药妆品牌的空间十分有限。

　　面对垄断性局面，葛文耀强调，“药妆是家化必须进入的战略性领域。”不过，上海家化仍然清醒地意识到竞争的严酷。上海家化事业二部部长黄震向网易财经表示，“目前我们对药妆品牌不定很高目标，上市之初不考虑盈利时间，在药妆这个被国外品牌垄断的市场空间里，先试水，寻求突破口。国外大牌有多年的丰富的药房渠道运营经验，而我们是首次进入药房渠道，所以是抱着探索的心态。

　　在家化之前，国产药妆也曾出现过类似“泽平”、“姗拉娜”、“迪豆”等消费者认知度较高的品牌，但大多昙花一现，没有出现过本土领导性药妆品牌。业内人士认为，要应对国外药妆品牌，国产品牌厂商不能在市场销售打开后就追求短期利润，要持续保证产品质量和丰富的产品线，还要尽快摸索适合自己的药房渠道运营模式。(综合媒体报道)

Chinese Stocks With Most Stock Splits

1. Hundsun Technologies 恒生电子

2. Suning Appliances 苏宁电器

Shandong Gold Mining 山东黄金

买什么 9券商建议抄底18只低估股(名单)

http://stock.jrj.com.cn/hotstock/2009/12/2308566689965.shtml

申银万国：联通(600050)11月运营指标点评 维持"增持"评级

　　申银万国22日发布中国联通（600050）(600050)（600050.sh）11月月度运营指标点评，维持"增持"评级。

中国联通(600050)12 月22 日公告，11 月净增GSM 用户60.5 万户，累积GSM 用户达1.44 亿户；净增WCDMA 用户80.1 万户，累积WCDMA 用户达182.2 万户；净增宽带用户32.5 万户，累积宽带用户达3833 万户；净流失本地电话用户125 万户，累积本地电话用户达1.05 亿户。

　　申银万国点评如下：

　　趋势比绝对数字更为重要，如果趋势向好，后续超预期的可能性也随之提高。尽管中国联通11 月新增3G 用户的绝对规模略低于预期，但这并未妨碍公司在国内移动用户市场上份额的继续提升，而且这种竞争地位改善的迹象愈发明显。考虑到11 月三家运营商整体移动用户的增长放缓，公司单月新增3G 用户的小幅低于预期（80.1 万略低于90~100 万市场预期）也属于合理范围，而且，毕竟单月数字具有一定波动性。应当注意到中国联通是三家运营商中唯一延续移动用户加速增长趋势的公司。

　　从竞争地位看，公司在增量移动用户市场的份额连续第三个月保持显著的上升势头，由8 月份的9.6％提升至11 月的15.5％，在存量移动用户市场的份额亦由当时的6.4％提升至7.4％。对应着的则是中国移动在增量移动用户市场份额由65.6％下降至50.6％，在存量移动用户市场的份额由73.1％下降至72.2％。

　　带动公司移动用户加速增长的主要动力为高ARPU 的3G 用户，这决定了公司新增移动用户的"含金量"较高。11 月份联通3G 新增用户数已经超过2G 用户，而且新增3G 用户的ARPU 值明显高于100 元，这使得目前公司平均新增一个移动用户带来的边际收入大幅提升（预计高于中国电(600795)信，与中移动差距明显缩小）。

　　对比绝对规模，公司在3G 增量用户市场的领先势头已经出现。公司10 月新增3G 用户数52 万，11 月上升至80.1 万，这一水平已经高于TD 和EVDO（TD66.7 万，EVDO 预计09 年月均新增用户在75 万左右），按照申银万国的估算，11 月公司在国内增量3G 用户的市场份额已经上升到35％~40％之间，考虑到12 月公司3G 用户仍将加速增长，因此，公司在增量3G 用户市场的份额预计继续提升。

　　宽带用户增长低于预期，小灵通用户加速流失在预期之中。11 月新增宽带用户32.5 万户，较10 月份新增53.9万户的速度明显放缓，由于宽带是维持整体固网业务稳定的主要支撑，因此，11 月宽带用户增长的明显趋缓不能让人满意。同时，小灵通用户预计流失80 万户左右，导致本地电话用户加速下降，这一趋势在中国电信上有同样的反映。由于单月用户数字具有一定波动性，申银万国仍然维持截至2010 年底累积宽带用户数4880 万（2010年平均月新增宽带用户77 万左右）的预测。

　　维持2010 年月均新增3G 用户128 万户，月均新增2G 用户76 万户的预测，维持2009~2010 年EPS0.20 元、0.22元和0.32 元的盈利预测以及"增持"评级。申银万国推荐的主要基础仍然在于，公司在国内移动用户市场竞争地位的持续提升，以及新增用户质量的大幅改善，预计在未来几个月受益于3G 用户的加速增长，这一迹象将更加明显。

申银万国：南京银行（601009）(601009)配股点评 维持"增持"评级

　　申银万国22日发布南京银行(601009.sh)配股点评，维持"增持"评级，具体如下：

　　公司发布董事会决议公告，拟向全体股东按照每10 股配售不超过2.5 股的比例配股，预计募集资金净额不超过50 亿元，用以补充公司资本金。同时公司董事会审议通过了未来三年资本管理规划，确定未来三年资本充足率目标不低于12％，核心资本充足率目标不低于9％。

本次配股将有效补充公司核心资本，提高公司核心资本充足率、资本充足率各5 个百分点左右。仅考虑自身盈利积累，预计09 年底公司核心资本充足率约为12.7％，资本充足率约为14.4％。若本次配股能在年内完成，预计将提高公司核心资本充足率以及资本充足率各5 个百分点左右，09 年底核心资本充足率和资本充足率将分别达到17.9％和19.6％；若配股在10 年完成，则10 年核心资本充足率及资本充足率将分别达到14％和15％。11 年核心资本充足率仍有望达到10％左右。

　　高位补充资本，动因源于规模扩张的需要以及快速的资本消耗。截至09 年3 季度末，公司资本充足率13.21％，核心资本充足率11.63％，位于上市银行较高水平。公司在此背景下补充资本金，乃是考虑未来3 年网点铺设和规模增长仍将保持较快速度，公司过往2 年的资本快速消耗态势仍将持续（3 季度末，公司资本充足率和核心资本充足率较年初分别下降10.91 个百分点和9.15 个百分点）。预计10 年公司新设分行将在3-4 家左右，对一些村镇分行的收购仍将继续，同时贷款规模也将高速扩张，需要充足的资本作为支撑。

　　公司较低的附属资本比例为其未来通过发行次级债、混合资本债券等方式来持续补充资本提供了更大的空间和可行性，是其高速扩张的有力支撑。根据未来三年资本管理规划，预计未来3 年公司附属资本发行规模将在30-40亿左右。

　　此次配股为公司未来3 年的高速扩张提供了更为充足的资本支持，业绩快速增长可期。贷款规模的高速扩张将推动净利润快速增长，预计公司09、10 年净利润增速分别为12.23％和50％，目前公司股价对应倍PE，倍PB，10 年倍PE，倍PB，维持"增持"评级。

申银万国：云南白药（000538）(000538)公告点评 维持"买入"评级 上调目标价至85元

　　申银万国22日发布云南白药（000538.sz）公告点评，维持"买入"评级，上调目标价格至85元。

　　公司今日公告与文山州政府签订《合作开发文山三七产业战略协议》，文山州政府将所持文山七花公司股权和文山州制药厂全部无偿转让给公司，公司承诺自2010 年起，文山七花公司销售额和税收连续两年翻番，2012 年至2015 年销售增幅不低于30％。

申银万国点评如下：

　　文山七花股权转让，白药彻底集中于云南白药生产：白药原为云南白药、丽江药业、大理药业和文山七花四家企业生产，1996-1997 年云南白药收购其他三家生产企业部分股权实现控股，实现云南白药"五统一"--计划、商标（云丰牌）、文号、质量、销售。2007-2008 年云南白药陆续收购大理药业和丽江药业剩余股权，此次公司再次收购文山七花剩余股权（云南白药、文山州政府和职工持股会分别持有文山七花50.98％、43.24％和5.78％股权），就是为了100％控股三家白药生产企业，实现云南白药对白药产品100％控制权。

　　云南白药承诺文山七花未来两年收入和税收翻番：文山七花主要生产气血康胶囊（全国独家品种）、血塞通胶囊（心脑血管用药，市场容量大）等21 种药品，有丰富的产品线。此前文山七花依靠云南白药配额，产品销售一般，文山七花09 上半年仅实现收入1381 万元。云南白药收购文山七花剩余股权，承诺文山七花未来连续两年收入和利税翻番，申银万国预计2011 年收入达到1 亿元。

　　与文山州政府合作稳定三七供应和价格：文山是我国三七主产区，占我国三七产量70％，三七是云南白药系列产品主要生产原料之一。受气候、种植面积变化和流通环节等因素影响，近年来三七价格波动较大，影响了云南白药系列产品毛利率和文山当地农户收入。公司以文山七花为平台，与文山州在三七种植、贸易、研发等方面进行深度合作，通过控制三七种植和流通环节，维持三七价格平稳，保障当地农户收入稳定，保障公司三七供应并规避价格波动风险。

　　上调6个月目标价至85 元：白药系列产品进入基本药物目录，白药膏和白药气雾剂2010-2012 年销量有望大幅增长。白药膏涨价效应将体现在2010 年，2010 上半年公司生产将整体搬迁至呈贡基地，增长的产能瓶颈扫除。申银万国维持公司2009-2011 年每股收益1.13 元、1.70 元、2.18 元，同比增长30％、51％、28％，对应的预测市盈率分别为47 倍、31 倍、24 倍。申银万国上调6 个月目标价至85 元，维持"买入"评级。

申银万国：给予安徽水利（600502）(600502)"增持"评级

　　申银万国22日发布投资报告，给予安徽水利（600502.sh）"增持"评级，具体如下：

　　基建和地产为两大主业，拟定向增发募资加快地产业务发展：公司主营基建（水利工程、工民建、市政工程）、房地产等业务。安徽省国资委直属企业安徽省水利建筑工程总公司为公司第一大股东，持股比例17％。公司目前计划非公开发不超过6,000 万股，发行价格不低于9.17 元/股，募集资金主要用于房地产投资，增发完成后，第一大股东持股比例下降为13％。

基建换取低成本土地，同时进一步提升所获土地价值，"基建%2B地产"的协同效应使公司低成本获地270 万方：公司通过承担市政工程、水资源处理等基建工程，换取工程项目周边的大量低成本土地；同时，随着所承接的基建项目完工，所在区域的土地价值得以显著提高。这种"基建%2B地产"模式充分发挥了两项业务之间的协同效应，使公司以低成本获得了270 万方的土地资源量（平均楼面价低于200 元），未来有望发展成为安徽省区域地产龙头。

　　地产业务即将步入收获期，给予"增持"评级：2010 年开始，公司经营的主要地产项目逐渐步入结算高峰，同时，由于公司土地资源平均楼面价低于200 元/方，未来地产业务的盈利能力将进一步提高。预计公司09、10、11 年EPS 分别为0.2、0.71、0.86 元；如果考虑定向增发股本扩张后的EPS 分别为0.16、0.56、0.68 元，考虑到公司成功打造了"基建%2B地产"的业务模式，以及安徽省地产市场良好的长期发展前景，给与公司"增持"评级。

　　潜在风险主要来自区域房地产市场波动和非公开增发项目进展存在变数：公司的非公开增发融资计划需经国土资源部批准，为定向增发的实施进度带来一定不确定性；同时，公司的地产业务集中于安徽省内，当地的地产市场波动将导致公司的盈利波动风险。

国信证券：维持锦江股份（600754）(600754)"推荐"评级

　　国信证券22日发布投资报告，维持锦江股份（600754.sh）"推荐"评级，具体如下：

　　锦江股份2010 年最大的看点是重组和世博会

　　2010 年，锦江股份将重组为以经济型酒店和餐饮为主业的公司，其中，此次置入资产锦江之星是经济型酒店这一明星市场中的明星公司，将长期获益于行业的快速成长和超额收益。另外，公司将显著获益于世博会：结合锦江之星的新开店计划，2010 年其将为锦江股份贡献1.63 亿权益净利润；上海、苏锡杭肯德基贡献净利润将有近20％的增长；公司在上海的其他资产也将加速增长；

锦江之星未来数年发展的核心要义在于开店速度

　　经济型酒店最大的优势之一在于标准化、可复制，具有规模优势的公司外延增长能力较强。在经济型酒店发展到饱和之前（国信证券认为，时间点在2020 年左右），开店速度对价值的提升作用要高于RevPar，公司管理层制定的3－5 年内将门店总规模扩至1000 家的计划，国信证券认为是符合股东利益的；

　　餐饮和金融资产是锦江股份迈向后重组时代的缓冲器

　　锦江股份所拥有的上海、苏锡杭肯德基股权，和2010 年底即将解禁的长江证券（000783）(000783)等可售金融资产一起，组成了锦江股份迈向后重组时代的缓冲器，将为锦江之星的快速扩张计划供应充足资金；

　　维持"推荐"评级，给予26.9 元目标价

　　西南航(600029)空、La Quinta 等"小公司、大成长"的故事，不胜枚举。在内需加速升级、商务繁荣的下十年，中国将会涌现出许多这样的商业传奇，国信证券认为，锦江股份就是优质的候选者之一。预计09－11年EPS可达0.46/0.55/0.6元，对应09-11年P/E45/38/35倍。国信证券对公司进行了分部估值，测算得公司合理股价26.9 元：锦江之星14.3 元（FCFF）、餐饮8 元（P/E）、可售金融资产3.15元、单体酒店1.5 元（NAV）。且此估值尚未包含前景巨大的低端（百时）及中高端经济型酒店（尚未公布），和未来可能向加盟店收取的订房系统渠道费等，因此仍有相当的增长空间。在基本面和世博会的双重支撑下，当前股价有30-45％的上涨空间。基于国信证券对公司看好，维持"推荐"评级。

国信证券：中国联通3G新增用户首次超越2G新增用户 维持"推荐"评级

　　国信证券22日就中国联通（600050.sh）3G新增用户首次超越2G新增用户发布点评，维持联通"推荐"评级。

　　中国联通公布2009 年11 月新增用户数据（移动电话用户、本地电话用户、宽带用户）

　　国信证券分析如下：

　　一、中国联通11 月新增3G 用户80.1 万户，3G 新增用户首次超越2G 新增用户。

　　11 月联通3G 新增用户实现较快增长，当月新增80.1 万户。这一情况完全符合国信证券过去几个月间一直维持的用户数量发展判断："预计10、11、12 月3G 新增用户分别为60、80、100 万户"的判断。11 月联通2G 新增用户60.5 万个，环比下降24.5％。国信证券认为2G 新增用户数量下降可能是趋势性的，原因是国信证券预计公司后续的营销重点将进一步向发展3G 用户倾斜。但这一情况并不足虑，因为2G 新增用户的质量一直不高，留存率很低，2G 新增用户数并不是能够反应经营趋势的有效先行指标。11 月宽带新增用户回落至32.5 万户，环比下降39.7％，国信证券估计主要系季节因素所致。11 月固定电话流失125.2 万户，幅度有所加大。

二、最新3G 放号情况跟踪与判断：温和启动，逐步升温。

　　（1）公司管理层指引：有信心每月发展100 万3G 用户。 上月联通管理层指引（也可见公开媒体报道）：相信iPhone 推出后将对第四季度业务起积极作用，有信心使3G 每月用户新增数达到100 万户。此外，管理层还预计"iPhone 有望成为中国最畅销的智能手机"，同时提到联通将评估销售结果，从而对iPhone 营销策略做出相应调整。

　　（2）国信证券预计联通3G 新增用户数将在80-100 万户的水平持续一到两个季度。 国信证券预计联通3G 新增用户数将在80-100万户的水平持续一到两个季度，进而在明年二季度前后迈上新的台阶。做出这一预测的主要原因是：一方面国信证券认为：3G 认知程度和消费有一个逐步被群体接受的过程而后会逐步升温。另一方面国信证券认为：2010 年手机销售渠道中3G 手机占比的不断提升将是推动联通3G 新增用户数上台阶的主要力量。因此，国信证券也建议投资者关注各社会卖场中3G 手机占比、各手机经销商的3G 手机销售排货计划，这些将是最主要的3G 新增用户数先行指标。

　　（3）未来更长时间段内联通3G 用户发展判断：逐步升温。 1）跟踪联通近半年的3G 用户发展策略可以发现：联通在不断根据市场的反馈调整资费价格、资费结构、终端价格。未来这三者变化的方向无疑是持续下降，这将不断降低3G 的进入门槛，对新用户的发展逐步起到正面作用。2）各类销售渠道中3G 手机的比例（与2G 手机相比）也将会随着手机厂商、手机经销商的逐步跟进而不断提高，这也将对新用户的发展逐步起到正面作用。3）此外中国电信、中国移动对3G 的逐步推广也将对联通3G用户的发展起到正面作用（行业整体向3G 进军，同样会促进联通3G 用户的发展速度）。国信证券认为：联通3G 新增用户未来将逐步加速增长，2010 年平均月增100 万户3G 用户的可能性较大。

　　三、投资建议：维持联通"推荐"评级及原有判断：建议未来一到两个季度波段操作；直至度过季度盈利拐点（预计在10Q2-Q3）。

　　未来一到两个季度，国信证券预计中国联通将"跑平"大盘。从绝对涨跌幅来看，中国联通股价目前处于历史低位，下行空间有限，未来上行空间较大，但这无疑需要一定的时间与等待。综合各因素，国信证券维持中国联通"推荐"的投资评级，目标价8 元。预计3G 用户数将驱动股价阶段性上涨，适合波段操作捕捉交易性机会。等待度过季度盈利拐点后（WCDMA 网络的盈利拐点预计在10Q2-Q3），有望摆脱"振荡"走势，趋势性走强。

　　四、支持结论的主要逻辑及因素：盈利难有起色、3G 用户发展迅速、等待盈利拐点。

　　（1）未来一至两个季度联通盈利难有起色，原因是3G 初期收入尚不能覆盖折旧增量及其他成本。（2）联通3G 新增用户数量有望逐步达到100 万户/月，预计在10Q2-Q3 其3G 收入将超越成本。（3）目前股价处于历史低位区域（PB 为1.9 倍、PE 为09 年33.7 倍），未来大幅上涨有赖于盈利预期的明确提升。

　　另：中国移动、中国电信也公布2009 年11 月新增用户数据（移动电话用户、本地电话用户、宽带用户）

　　五、中国电信C 网增长保持高位，累计用户达5299 万。

　　中国电信11 月C 网新增用户307.0 万户，环比略降但依旧维持高位，移动市场新增份额进一步提升至33.9％。截止11 月，C 网用户数已达5299 万户，较年初规模接近翻番，用户发展战略较为成功。电信11 月宽带新增用户环比基本持平，为69.0 万户。固定电话用户继续流失，为184.0 万户。

　　六、中国移动新增用户环比下降，新增市场份额跌至50.6％。

　　11 月中国移动新增457.9 万户，同比下降33.3％，环比下降10.2％，新增用户市场份额更是大幅降至50.6％的近年来的历史低点。其中，11 月3G 新增用户为66.7 万户，累计达到298.0 万户，全年新增3G 用户有望达到350－400 万户。未来其2G 市场仍将继续遭受蚕食，3G 市场竞争压力亦将加剧，市场表现有待观察Ophone 及MM 软件商店等差异化竞争手段的推广进程。

中金公司：维持中海、中远、长航油运（600087）(600087)"推荐"评级

　　中金公司22日发布11月份航运业数据月报表示，短线机会不大，BDI下跌中布局增长确定的个股，维持中海发展（600026）(600026)（600026.sh）、中远航运（600428）(600428)（600428.sh）、长航油运（600087.sh）"推荐"的投资评级，具体如下：

短期来看中金公司认为航运板块不存在整体大幅上涨的机会。但是中金公司认为在BDI 的下滑过程中可以逢低吸纳中海发展(600026)和中远航运(600428)等增长确定的个股。其中，中海发展2010 年度内贸煤运价谈判存在超预期可能，中远航运在重吊船半潜船方面的投资可能超出预期，带来公司业绩和估值得长期提升，均维持"推荐"的投资评级。而长航油运，由于2010 年下半年油轮运价增长趋势确定，维持"推荐"评级不变。至于中国远洋（601919）(601919)和中海集运（601866）(601866)，中金公司建议投资者春节后再关注BDI 阶段性上涨和集运旺季提价带来的交易机会。

天相投顾：中国中冶（601618）(601618)与安徽省签订337亿元合作协议 维持"增持"评级

　　天相投顾22日就中国中冶（601618.sh）公告表示与安徽省签订337亿元合作协议发布点评，维持公司"增持"的评级。

公司公告，控股子公司中国十七冶（66.7％）和中冶华天（82.5％）在"安徽省与中央企业合作发展会议"上与该省有关市县签订337亿元战略合作协议。

　　天相投顾评论如下：

　　本次合作协议内容包括保障性住房建设、道路场馆建设、供水及污水处理项目建设等，方式采用BT、BOT、TOT、一二级土地联动开发等，协议金额折合公司权益达到240亿元，相当于公司08年收入的15.6％。

　　中国中冶拥有完整的建筑产业链，在大型综合类项目施工领域具有较强的竞争优势(310368)，特别是在钢铁行业严控新建产能的背景下，非冶金类建筑业务将成为公司重要的盈利增长点。本次合作项目需要垫资施工，但将获得资本收益和施工收益的双重回报，盈利能力将显著高于现有业务，考虑到公司刚刚完成上市融资，本协议的垫资并不会造成公司过大的资金压力。同时地方政府信用较高，公司的风险也相对可控。

　　本项目金额较大、盈利能力较强，将对公司未来业绩产生积极的影响，天相投顾稍后将对盈利预测进行上调。调整前预计公司2009～2011年EPS分别为0.24元、0.28元和0.52元，对应的动态PE为24倍、20倍和11倍，当前股价5.58元仅高于发行价3％，若股价受IPO网下配售股份解禁的冲击破发（12月23日解禁）将是较好的买入时机，天相投顾暂时维持公司"增持"的评级，在稍后发出的建筑行业年度策略报告中将上调为"买入"。

兴业证券：诺普信（002215）(002215)公告点评 维持"推荐"评级

　　兴业证券22日发布诺普信（002215.sz）公告点评，维持"推荐"的投资评级。

　　诺普信发布公告，公司董事会通过决议，拟与福建省泉州德盛农药有限公司共同投资设立公司，从事绿色环保农药制剂的研发和推广应用。其中，公司拟出资人民币550 万元，持有所投资公司55％的股权。

兴业证券点评如下：

　　具体合作方案为：诺普信以货币出资550 万元，德盛农药以无形资产和生产设备等非货币资产作价出资450 万元，设立新公司。其中无形资产包括：（1）松脂植物油及其衍生物产品生产技术和工艺；（2）植物油农药助剂相关的专有技术和生产工艺等。新设公司的经营范围包括松树林的承包经营，松树油（松脂）、林业化工及其衍生品的生产及销售，松树油基农药制剂（绿色乳油农药产品）应用技术的研究、开发和推广等。

　　绿色乳油农药产品前景广阔。为控制苯类溶剂造成的污染，国家正逐步压缩传统乳油产品：自2006年7 月1 日起，国家发改委对纯粹生产乳油产品的新办农药企业不再核准；自2009 年8 月1 日起，工业和信息化部不再颁发新的农药乳油产品批准证书。

　　随着行业政策和产业规划的贯彻实施，在可预见的未来，当前仍约占50％市场份额的100 万吨乳油产品将迅速被绿色乳油及其它环保制剂所替代，从而带来天然植物油溶剂等非芳烃类环保溶剂在农药领域约30 万吨/年的市场容量，应用前景广阔。

　　本次合作将强化诺普信在绿色乳油农药的领先地位。诺普信从2004 年起即因应环保化的农药制剂行业发展趋势，率先开展了以天然松树植物油溶剂替代芳烃类溶剂的绿色乳油项目，目前已经规模化生产。通过本次投资合作，将有效整合德盛农药在松树油基农药制剂领域的技术资源，进一步强化诺普信在绿色农药制剂领域的领先地位。

　　维持"推荐"评级。诺普信是中国农药制剂行业的龙头企业，在行业集中度持续提高的历史机遇下，公司依托综合竞争优势(310368)，市场占有率和盈利能力持续提高。基于对农药行业发展方向的前瞻性认识，公司以环保型农药产品为发展重心，除了领先同行的水基化农药制剂外，在绿色乳油农药制剂的开发上同样一马当先。通过本次合资行动，诺普信在绿色乳油农药的领先地位更加突出，为在未来日益注重环保的农药行业继续快速成长打下良好的基础。

　　公司于8 月13 日公布增发预案，拟非公开发行股票不超过3000 万股，募集资金上限为53813.90 元投资于环保型农药制剂等5 个项目。该预案已获公司临时股东大会通过，尚待监管部门的核准。兴业证券暂不考虑增发的影响，维持对公司09-11 年EPS 分别为0.67、1.00 和1.43 元的预测，维持"推荐"的投资评级。

兴业证券：超声电子（000823）(000823)公告点评 维持"推荐"评级

　　兴业证券22日发布超声电子（000823.sz）公告点评 维持对公司的"推荐"评级。

　　12 月22 日，公司发布《第五届董事会第四次会议决议公告》，提出关于实施环保型高性能覆铜板生产技术项目的议案。项目计划投资11900 万元，其中银行贷款8900 万元，使用自有资金3000 万元。项目预计于2011 年建成投产，达产年可实现销售收入19980 万元，销售利润率11.04％，税前静态投资回收期为4.9509 年。该项议案表决情况：9 票同意，获得全票通过。

兴业证券点评如下：

　　1、该项目体现了公司持续推进PCB 产业中游、下游一体化的战略。2003 年以来公司不断加大对CCL 的技改投入，技术实力和生产能力也不断提升。目前，公司CCL 产能超过500 万平方米，2009 年上半年销售收入1.7 亿元，其中三分之一的产品提供给自己的PCB 厂，占PCB 使用量的40％左右。高性能覆铜板技改项目达产后，CCL 总产能将扩大到780 万平方米，公司覆铜板的自给率会更高，体现了公司的一体化战略。

　　2、该项目符合电子信息产品绿色环保的大趋势。新增的270 万平方米覆铜板全部是无铅无卤等环保型高性能覆铜板，是高性能绿色环保印刷电路板的专用基材，是被国家发改委、工信部2009 年9 月3 日联合发布的《电子信息产业技术进步和技术改造投资方向》列为鼓励发展、重点发展的领域，符合电子信息产品绿色环保的需求，市场前景广阔。

　　3、总体而言，对公司未来业绩带来积极影响。该项目将增加8900 万元银行贷款，兴业证券参照2008 年中国银行(601988)汕头分行给公司的长期贷款利率为7.56％，明年将增加利息672 万，EPS 将减少1.5 分。对2011 年而言，假设项目年中达产，实现销售收入1 亿元，净利润1000 万左右，利息还是672 万元，则增加净利润328 万元，EPS 增加0.7 分。总之，兴业证券认为该项目将增强公司竞争力，给公司带来积极影响，维持对公司的"推荐"评级。

　海通证券（600837）：华胜天成发布股权激励计划草案公告，给予"买入"评级

　　中国证券网消息 海通证券(600837)12月22日发布投资报告，针对华胜天成（600410.SH）发布股权激励计划草案公告，给予"买入"评级。

长江证券：东软集团（600718）(600718)股价已被低估，维持"推荐"评级

　　长江证券(000783)12月22日发布投资报告，认为东软集团（600718.SH）股价已被低估，维持"推荐"评级。

　　对于东软而言，长江证券认为其外包业务明年增速将加快，判断基于两点：第一，从宏观层面看，由于东软外包业务主要集中于对日电子产品的嵌入式领域，因此其接包量与日本电子产品的销售额紧密相关，长江证券从日本电子产品销售额及其增速来看，从5 月份开始持续反弹，虽然其同比仍为负增长，但其增速逐步收窄已是不争事实，这可基本说明日本电子产品销售额已走出低谷，并开始步入复苏，长江证券认为，日本电子产品销售额的复苏将会刺激其嵌入式软件的发包量，从而对东软形成利好。

长江证券：东软集团（600718）(600718)股价已被低估，维持"推荐"评级

　　长江证券(000783)12月22日发布投资报告，认为东软集团（600718.SH）股价已被低估，维持"推荐"评级。

　　对于东软而言，长江证券认为其外包业务明年增速将加快，判断基于两点：第一，从宏观层面看，由于东软外包业务主要集中于对日电子产品的嵌入式领域，因此其接包量与日本电子产品的销售额紧密相关，长江证券从日本电子产品销售额及其增速来看，从5 月份开始持续反弹，虽然其同比仍为负增长，但其增速逐步收窄已是不争事实，这可基本说明日本电子产品销售额已走出低谷，并开始步入复苏，长江证券认为，日本电子产品销售额的复苏将会刺激其嵌入式软件的发包量，从而对东软形成利好。

第二，从微观层面看，长江证券关注东软下游客户的经营状况，从其三大客户东芝、索尼、阿尔派的财报情况来看，自从其去年四季度（09年1-3月份）步入低谷后，今年一季度（09年4-6月份）开始反弹，二季度负增速进一步收窄，这说明了公司下游客户经营状况已好转，随着公司客户业绩的逐步好转，其对东软的发包量也必然将触底反弹，虽然从目前看来效果并非特别明显，这主要因为外包的复苏滞后于实体经济半年左右，长江证券判断在明年一季度前后，也即日本上市公司2010财年开始的时间点，东软软件外包的接包量将显著上升。

　　东软的国内业务主要集中于社保、电信、电力、教育、医疗、铁路等领域。长江证券对东软明年的国内解决方案业务持较为乐观的态度。第一，从09 年各大行业固定资产投资增速来看，大部分行业增速均处于近几年的高峰期，而IT 投资相对于基建投资而言具备一定的滞后性，其IT 需求将在明年得以释放，这使长江证券有理由相信东软下游需求明年增长较为确定。

　　从各行业2009 年和2010 年的IT 支出对比中也可看出其明年增速将加快，而这主要是源于中国信息化步伐的加快和今年基建项目对IT 投资需求的逐步释放。

　　长江证券认为，基于2010 年国内各大行业IT 需求的快速增长，东软的国内解决方案业务处于较好的大环境中，而公司国内三大主要领域社保、电信、电力均存在政策推动利好，如社保领域的各省医保大集中和医改、电信领域增值业务的发展带来计费系统的改造升级、电力领域的186 工程和智能电网（东软目前已进入智能电网领域的数据采集系统和数据分析系统，未来有望成为公司电力领域新的利润增长点）等均将促进其下游需求的快速增长，长江证券认为2010 年东软国内业务高速增长值得期待。

　　长江证券预计公司2009、2010 年EPS 分别为0.67、0.84 元，目前股价对应2010 年PE 仅为24 倍，作为国内软件外包龙头企业，其明年国内、国际业务增长较为确定，长江证券认为其股价明显被低估，建议买入，并维持对其"推荐"评级。

东方证券：维持中国石化（600028）(600028)"买入"评级

　　东方证券12月22日发布投资报告，维持中国石化（600028.SH）"买入"评级。

　　进入20 世纪，以中国、印度为代表的新兴经济体对原油需求快速增长，对于供给相对集中的能源来讲，高基数基础上的增量对价格的边际拉动效果更加明显。90 年代原油价格均衡在20美元/桶左右，经过本轮需求的增长，再考虑美元较世纪初贬值近35％，长期原油均衡价格跃上新的台阶是毫无疑问的。东方证券预计未来1 年原油价格的波动区间在60-80 美元/桶之间。

中国石化拥有油气开采、炼油、销售、化工四个业务板块，如果将炼油、销售和化工视为加工流通环节，根据市场供求关系赚取合理的中间环节利润的话，那么原油和天然气价格对中国石化业绩的影响主要体现在油气开采板块。

　　考虑到普光气田2010 年逐渐供应商业气量，中国石化未来1-2 年油气销量预计在3.75 亿桶左右，较2003 年增长30％以上。如果未来集团公司海外油气资产逐渐注入股份公司，那么股份公司油气年产量还将有20％以上的增长。

　　在国际原油价格运行区间60-80 美元/桶时，中国石化油气开采板块的EBIT 在298 亿-597 亿，平均盈利水平448 亿，而2003 年以前，当原油价格在30 美元/桶以下的交易区间运行时，中国石化该板块的EBIT 通常在200 亿以下。也就是说，如果未来几年原油价格跃上60-80 美元/桶的新台阶，那么中国石化油气开采板块的EBIT 将提高100 亿-300 亿，折合每股收益提高0.09-0.26 元。可见，原油价格交易区间的提高大幅提升了中国石化油气开采板块的盈利能力。

　　油气价格跃上新的台阶以及今年5 月推出的新油品定价机制使得中国石化的盈利能力较前几年有了本质的提升，东方证券预计中国石化今明两年的业绩分别为0.73 元/股和0.82 元/股，目前动态市盈率17.5 倍和15.6 倍，维持"买入"的投资评级。

　　东方证券认为股价表现的催化剂包括：集团资产置入的预期，天然气价格上调的预期，可分离交易的权证行权日期临近。风险因素则为：当国际原油价格大幅飙升而新的成品油定价机制不能很好贯彻时，炼油板块盈利仍然可能低于预期，从而拖累公司业绩。

东方证券：五粮液（000858）(000858)调研，维持"买入"评级

　　东方证券12月22日发布投资报告，通过对五粮液（000858.SZ）的调研，维持"买入"评级。

　　2010 年五粮液销量放量存在内外因基础。1. 东方证券预计公司09 年饮用级五粮液销量0.98 万吨左右，同比小幅下降，原因主要是主动控货；2. 2010 年公司将结束实行近两年的控货政策，五粮液商品酒产量将近1.3 万吨，随着经济回暖带来的消费回升、公司积极主动的放量、加之09 年对经销商的未兑现供货，东方证券预计销量将在1.2 万吨以上，同比增长近30％。

东方证券判断公司产品提价势在必行。贵州茅台（600519）(600519)提出在明年元月提价13％后，市场对此褒贬不一，东方证券的观点是积极的，理由主要是看好高端酒在2010年的恢复性增长，考量高端酒的特性：一是提价是维持高端酒品牌形象所需要的；二是随着消费者收入的增长，厂商提价可以推高终端价，进一步维持产品的消费档次；三是从历史数据观察，高端酒提价一般不影响其销量。东方证券认为五粮液跟进提价可以使公司产品和竞争产品同处一条价格线，有助于巩固产品的市场地位，预计公司52?五粮液提价幅度在30-50 元/瓶，提价时间不会超过两个月。

　　东方证券表示，管理体制进一步理顺是公司业绩起飞的基础。体现在关联交易的解决和上级考核机制的变化上。2009 年公司和集团通过成立新销售公司，解决了关联交易造成的80％利润流失，由此可增加2010 年收入25 亿元左右，由此增加的净利润有望超过9 亿元。由于公司和集团管理层人员重叠，上级对业绩的考核主要集中在集团层面，东方证券认为这是公司关联交易长期存在或者说管理层未能积极解决该问题的重要原因，随着关联交易的逐步解决，对上市公司和集团的考核将分开，对公司股价相关的市值考核也有望实现。

　　东方证券称，随着公司高端酒销量逐步赶超茅台以及关联交易逐步解决带来的利润回流，其市值相对茅台近50％的折价局面有望改变，考虑到公司庞大的规模和中高端与中端酒相对茅台系列酒的强势，市值超茅台又何妨。

　　唐桥董事长上任后，其对团购业务异常重视，军队、高校和企业是公司团购业务的最大客户群。今年团购收入将达到11.55亿元，同比增长超过18％，占收入比重将达12％。公司对经销商返点政策也积极体现出产品的战略方向，未来公司会加强团购和中端酒以上产品的销售，团购方面，销售200 万以上的经销商都有返点，比例在2％以上，最高达到4.5％。而对10 元以下的低端酒销售不予返点。

　　东方证券预计公司09-11 年EPS分别为0.82 元、1.24 元和1.55 元，以当前27.74 元的价格计算，对应的动态PE 分别为34X、22X 和18X，考虑到业绩快速增长和估值较低的因素，维持"买入"的投资评级。